Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 7/18/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers (52-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (44-48)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 7:05 pm (PNC Park)
Junior Guerra (1-3) (4.78) vs. I Nova (9-6) (3.21)
The Line: Pittsburgh Pirates -155 / Milwaukee Brewers +135 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds
The Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates face off in game two of their four game division set on Tuesday.
The Milwaukee Brewers will look to bounce back after dropping the series opener on Monday by a final score of 4-2. Orlando Arcia went 2 for 4 with an RBI while Stephen Vogt accounted for the other Brewers run, despite going 0 for 2 at the dish. Travis Shaw went 2 for 5 with a double while Eric Thames added a pair of his own. Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar added respective base hits as well in the losing effort for Milwaukee. Brent Suter gave up a pair of runs on seven hits while walking and striking out a pair each over 4.2 innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Josh Hader took the loss, falling to 1-1 on the year. Junior Guerra will start game two and is 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 39 strikeouts this year. In his career, Guerra is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 20 strikeouts against Pittsburgh.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to keep their momentum going after winning five of their last six games following their game one win on Monday. Gregory Polanco led the way, going a perfect 4 for 4 at the dish with a pair of doubles and two RBIs. Jordy Mercer and Max Moroff each chipped in an RBI in the winning effort while Josh Bell went 1 for 4 with a double. Francisco Cervelli went 2 for 5 while Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Osuna and even starting pitcher Chad Kuhl added base hits in the win for the Buccos. Speaking of Kuhl, he went 5.2 innings giving up just the two runs on four hits while walking three and striking out seven, also not factoring in the decision. Daniel Hudson got the win to improve to 2-4 this season while Felipe Rivero threw 1.1 perfect innings of relief for his 7th save of the year. Ivan Nova will start game two and is 9-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 67 strikeouts this season. In his career, Nova is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 15 strikeouts against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and 5-1 in Guerra’s last 6 division starts while the over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 division matchups. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and 5-1 in Nova’s last 6 home starts while the under is 16-5-2 in their last 23 home games. The under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts against Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee may be the better team here, but Guerra hasn’t gone past the fourth inning in any of his last three starts, giving up a combined 13 earned runs in his last 11.1 innings of work. Not to mention, Guerra has only won one of his ten starts this season. Nova on the other hand could arguably be the best pitcher in the Pirates’ rotation this season, and is at home where he does hold an advantage so I’ll lay the juice with Pittsburgh here behind Nova.