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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres - 8/10/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

San Diego Padres (50-62) at Cincinnati Reds (46-67)

MLB Baseball: Thursday, August 10, 2017 at 12:35 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Dinelson Lamet (6-4) (5.12) vs. Luis Castillo (2-5) (3.64)

The Line: Cincinnati Reds -147 / San Diego Padres +137 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds


Out at Great American Ball Park on Thursday, the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds will be finishing up their MLB series. 

San Diego and Cincinnati split the first two games, with the Reds winning Monday and the Padres winning on Tuesday. In Wednesday’s game, the Reds scored two runs in four separate innings on the way to an 8-3 victory. 

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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres - 8/10/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


For the Thursday matchup, the Padres will be bringing out RHP Dinelson Lamet. In his 63.1 innings and 6-4 record this year, Lamet has a 5.12 ERA with 80 Ks and 25 BBs. 

San Diego has a few noteworthy bats this year. Coming into Wednesday, Wil Myers brought 96 hits, 55 runs, 21 homers and 53 RBI, while Hunter Renfroe had 88 hits, 45 runs, 20 homers and 45 RBI. Myers popped a homer on Wednesday; Renfroe had one hit. 

Over on the Reds’ side, they’re going with RHP Luis Castillo on Thursday. In his 54.1 innings and 2-5 record this year, Castillo has a 3.64 ERA with 55 Ks and 23 BBs. 

Cincinnati has some key hitters this year as well. Joey Votto led the way coming into Wednesday with 123 hits, 74 runs, 30 homers and 81 RBI, while Adam Duvall had 111 hits, 56 runs, 25 homers and 77 RBI. In Wednesday’s game, Votto had a double with an RBI and two runs; Duvall had two hits with two runs. 

The Padres are 5-16 in their last 21 during game four of a series, and 5-0 in Lamet’s last five starts versus a team with a losing record. San Diego is also 6-2 in Lamet’s last eight starts and 4-0 in Lamet’s last four starts versus the NL Central. 

Meanwhile, the Reds are 9-21 in their last 30 during game four of a series, and 1-4 in their last five Thursday games. Cincinnati is also 1-4 in Castillo’s last five starts and 1-4 in Castillo’s last five starts on grass. 

After giving up 10 earned over 8.0 innings in Colorado and Cleveland, Lamet has calmed down with four earned over three starts on 11 hits in 18.1 innings. As for Castillo, he’s given up a total of seven earned in 19.1 innings over his last three starts. Castillo is just 2-5 over his last seven outings; even though he hasn’t been especially bad he’s either been betrayed by the bullpen or the offense in each start. I see no reason to doubt that trend will continue, so I’ll take the Reds here for the finale win.

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