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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays - 9/27/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Toronto Blue Jays (75-83) at Boston Red Sox (91-66)

MLB Baseball: Wednesday, September 27, 2017 at 7:10 pm (Fenway Park)

M Estrada (10-8) (4.70) vs. R Porcello (10-17) (4.55)

The Line: Boston Red Sox -165 / Toronto Blue Jays +145 --- Over/Under: 9.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: RSN, NESN

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox meet in the finale of their three game AL East division set from Fenway Park on Wednesday.

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to complete the sweep after taking game two by a final score of 9-4 on Tuesday, giving Toronto their fourth win in their last five games. Teoscar Hernandez and Josh Donaldson each belted out a pair of home runs, with Hernandez going 2 for 5 with four RBIs, while Donaldson went 3 for 5 with a pair of solo blasts. Kendrys Morales added a solo homer of his own while going 2 for 5 with two RBIs, while Ryan Goins added an RBI of his own in the win. Kevin Pillar went 3 for 5 at the dish, while Jose Bautista added a double and Darwin Barney chipped in a base hit of his own in the winning effort. J.A. Happ got the win to improve to 10-11 this season after allowing just one run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings of work. Marco Estrada will start the finale and is 10-8 with a 4.70 ERA and 174 strikeouts this season. In his career, Estrada is 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 49 strikeouts against Boston.

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays - 9/27/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox will look to avoid the sweep after dropping game two on Tuesday. Sandy Leon hit a solo homer, while Chris Young fell a homer short of the cycle, going 3 for 4 with a triple, a double and an RBI in the loss. Rajai Davis added a pinch-hit RBI double, and Hanley Ramirez added an RBI of his own to round out the scoring for Boston. Xander Bogaerts added a pair of base hits, going 2 for 4 at the dish in the losing effort for the BoSox. Chris Sale took the loss, falling to 17-8 this season after giving up five runs on eight hits while walking a pair and striking out eight over five innings of work. Rick Porcello will start game three and is 10-17 with a 4.55 ERA and 173 strikeouts this season. In his career, Porcello is 8-9 with a 4.83 ERA and 80 strikeouts against Toronto.

Toronto is 5-1 in Estrada’s last 6 starts and 6-2 in their last 8 division matchups while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 4-12 in Porcello’s last 16 division starts and 35-18 in their last 53 games overall while the under is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts overall. Toronto is 0-5 in Estrada’s last 5 starts against Boston.

I know the Jays haven’t had any success lately with Estrada against the Red Sox, but he’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last four starts and the Blue Jays have outplayed the Red Sox in the first two games of the series, taking it to the Red Sox ace in game two. Porcello doesn’t deserve to be this much of a favorite given the first two games of the series, so I’ll take a shot with Toronto and the plus money for the sweep.

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