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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets - 9/30/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New York Mets (69-91) at Philadelphia Phillies (65-95)

MLB Baseball: Saturday, September 30, 2017 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

S Lugo (7-5) (4.72) vs. H Alvarez (0-1) (3.60)

The Line: Philadelphia Phillies +133 / New York Mets -143 --- Over/Under: 8 See the Latest Odds


The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies square off in game two of their three game NL East division set on Saturday afternoon.

The New York Mets will look to bounce back after dropping the opener of the series by a final score of 6-2 on Friday. All of New York’s damage on the board was done with the home run, as Jose Reyes and Dominic Smith each belted a solo homer. Juan Lagares, Nori Aoki and Asdrubal Cabrera each had a pair of base hits, while Travis D’Arnaud and Phillip Evans each added a base knock of their own in the loss. Matt Harvey took the L, falling to 5-7 this season after allowing four runs on seven hits while walking and striking out three apiece over four innings of work. Jacob DeGrom will start game two and is 7-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season. In his career, Lugo is 0-0 with a 6.97 ERA and 12 strikeouts against Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets - 9/30/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Philadelphia Phillies will look to win game two and finish the season with a sweep on Sunday after winning the opener on Friday. Maikel Franco led the charge by going 1 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs, while Cesar Hernandez and Jorge Alfaro each logged a solo homer in the win. Alfaro also added a double while Odubel Herrera chipped in an RBI of his own. Nick Williams went 2 for 4, while Freddy Galvis and Rhys Hoskins each contributed a base knock in the winning effort for the Phils. Ben Lively got the win to improve to 4-7 this season after allowing two runs on six hits over six innings of work. Henderson Alvarez will start game two and is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. In his career, Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 33 strikeouts against the Mets.

New York is  5-17 in their last 22 road games and 2-8 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter while the over is 13-5 in their last 18 road games. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 home games and 31-67 in their last 98 games against a right-handed starter while the under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games overall. New York is 40-15 in the last 55 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia.

This series is all about pride at this point, and seeing what both teams have going into next season. With that said, I'm not sure how comfortable I am backing Lugo, even if he's pitched pretty decent as of late. Alvarez has had a lot of success in his career against the Mets, and that's good enough for me to take a shot with the Phillies and the plus money.

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