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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians ALDS Game 4 - 10/9/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Cleveland Indians (104-60) at New York Yankees (92-73)

MLB Baseball: Monday, October 9, 2017 at 7:08 pm (Yankee Stadium)

J Tomlin (11-9) (4.91) vs. Luis Severino (14-6) (3.11)

The Line: New York Yankees -164 / Cleveland Indians +151 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds


Out at Yankee Stadium on Monday, the Cleveland Indians and the New York Yankees will meet up for Game 4 of their American League Division Series. 

Cleveland won the first two games of this series 4-0 and 9-8 (a comeback victory in a 13-inning marathon). In the Sunday game, the Yankees stayed alive with a Greg Bird homer and a 1-0 nail-biter win. 

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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians ALDS Game 4 - 10/9/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Indians may wheel out Josh Tomlin for the Game 4 on Monday, but since he appeared in the Friday Game 2 marathon as a reliever (and got the win), there could be a bit of a shakeup afoot. 

Cleveland has some great bats on their roster. Jose Ramirez led the way in the regular season with 186 hits, 107 runs, 29 homers and 83 RBI, while Francisco Lindor had 178 hits, 99 runs, 33 homers and 89 RBI. Ramirez managed a hit on Sunday, but Lindor went 0-for-4 with two Ks. 

Over on the Yankees’ side, they’re going with RHP Luis Severino on Monday. In his 193.1 innings and 14-6 record this year, Severino posted a 2.98 ERA with 230 Ks and 51 BBs. 

New York has some notable hitters as well. Brett Gardner was the top hitter in the regular season with his 157 hits, 96 runs, 21 homers and 53 RBI; Aaron Judge posted 154 hits, 128 runs, 52 homers and 114 RBI. Gardner had a double on Sunday, but Judge came up empty 0-for-3. 

The Indians are 6-1 in their last seven Divisional Playoff games and 44-9 in their last 53 overall. Cleveland is also 16-5 in their last 21 Monday games and 35-16 in their last 51 during game four of a series. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees are 19-7 in their last 26 Monday games and 5-11 in their last 16 during game four of a series. New York is also 14-2 in Severino’s last 16 starts and 5-0 in Severino’s last five home starts. 

Severino lasted just 1/3 of an inning in the Wild Card Game versus the Twins, but was bailed out by the Yankees bats—and also the poor starting pitching of Minnesota. If nothing else, Severino is well-rested after just 29 pitches and six days off, but if you toss out the win he had in Tampa, he’s given up six earned over 3.1 innings of work. I do think Severino will bounce back here and pitch at least reasonably well, but I haven’t been comfortable picking the unpredictable Yankees in this series. Cleveland seems to have destiny on their side this season. I’ll take the Indians thanks to the permissive line, but it’s probably a game to stay away from.

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