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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs Game 4 - 10/11/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Washington Nationals (98-66) at Chicago Cubs (93-71)

MLB Baseball: Wednesday, October 11, 2017 at 4:00 pm (Wrigley Field)

S Strasburg (15-4) (2.52) vs. J Arrieta (14-10) (3.53)

The Line: Chicago Cubs -145 / Washington Nationals +135 --- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Up at historic Wrigley Field on Wednesday, the Washington Nationals and the Chicago Cubs will be meeting up in Game 4 of their National League Division Series. 

The Cubs won Game 1 3-0, then the Nationals struck back with a 6-3 win to even the series in Game 2. In Monday’s Game 3, the Cubbies cobbled together a run in the seventh and eighth for a comeback 2-1 win. Chicago out-hit the Nats 4-3 but had a whopping four errors on the day. 

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs Game 4 - 10/11/17 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


For Game 4, the Nationals were originally going to push back Tanner Roark, but have elected to go with Stephen Strasburg. In his 175.1 innings and 15-4 record this year, Strasburg posted a 2.52 ERA with 204 Ks and 47 BBs. 

Washington has some notable bats this year. Leading the way in the regular season was David Murphy, who put up 172 hits, 94 runs, 23 homers and 93 RBI. Ryan Zimmerman was second on the team with 159 hits, 90 runs, 36 homers and 108 RBI. Murphy plated a run on Monday; Zimmerman had a hit and an RBI. 

Over on the Cubs’ side, they’re rolling with RHP Jake Arrieta on Tuesday. Over his 168.1 innings and 14-10 record this year, Arrieta put up a 3.53 ERA with 163 Ks and 55 BBs. 

The Cubs have some big-time hitters as well. Kris Bryant finished the regular season with 162 hits, 111 runs, 29 homers and 73 RBI; Anthony Rizzo had 156 hits, 99 runs, 32 homers and 109 RBI. Bryant came up empty on Monday, but Rizzo had one hit and an RBI. 

The Nationals are 14-5 in their last 19 Tuesday games and 35-17 in their last 52 in game four of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Nats’ last four Tuesday games and 5-2 in Washington’s last seven during game four of a series. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs are 22-8 in their last 31 during game four of a series and 49-23 in their last 72 Tuesday games. Chicago is also 13-5 in Arrieta’s last 18 starts versus the NL East and 5-0 in Arrieta’s last five starts during game four of a series. 

Roark was originally supposed to start here, partially on account of Strasburg feeling ill. He's apparently doing well now, however, and will pitch on regular rest. Strasburg took a tough-luck loss with two runs (zero earned) in 7.0 innings back in Game 1. As for Arrieta, he’s being pushed back a bit due to his balky hamstring. I was originally going to go with the Cubs here with Roark on the mound, but I've got more confidence in Strasburg. I'll take the Nats to push a Game 5. 

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