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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins - 5/5/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Marlins (11-19) at Cincinnati Reds (7-24)

MLB Baseball: Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 7:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Caleb Smith (1-3) (4.40) vs. Tyler Mahle (2-3) (4.32)

The Line: Cincinnati Reds -121 / Miami Marlins +111 --- Over/Under: 9.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS-Florida, FS-Ohio

The Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds square off in game two of their three game set from the Great American Ballpark in MLB action on Saturday. 

The Miami Marlins will look to rebound from back-to-back losses after starting the series with a 4-1 loss on Friday. Lewis Brinson’s solo homer accounted for the lone Miami run and was the Marlins’ only extra base hit in the loss. Brian Anderson went 2 for 4, while Derek Dietrich and J.T. Realmuto each contributed base hits as well in the losing effort. Wei-Yin Chen took the loss, falling to 1-1 after allowing all four runs on five hits over four innings of work. Caleb Smith will start game two and is 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA and 41 strikeouts this season. This is Smith’s first career start against Cincinnati.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins - 5/5/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds will look to build some steam after snapping a three game losing streak with their win on Friday. Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall did all the scoring for the Reds in the first inning with the long ball as Suarez belted a three run homer and Duvall followed him up by going back-to-back with a solo homer. Jose Peraza went 2 for 5 with a double and Joey Votto added a two-bagger as well, while Jesse Winker and Billy Hamilton contributed base hits as well in the victory. Sal Romano got the win after allowing one run on three hits over 5.1 innings of work to improve to 2-3 this season. Raisel Iglesias closed out the 9th for his 4th save of the campaign. Tyler Mahle will start game two and is 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. This will be Mahle’s first career start against Miami.

Miami is 1-4 in Smith’s last 5 starts and 0-6 in their last 6 games against the NL Central while the under is 8-1 in their last 9 games against a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 19-49 in their last 68 games against a left-handed starter and 1-4 in Mahle’s last 5 starts against a team with a losing record while the over is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Miami is 12-26 in the last 38 meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati.

I could be wrong here, but I think Cincinnati could finally be onto something. Of course we say that and then the Reds go right back to stinking up the joint. Smith rebounded from a rocky start to the year by giving up just two runs over his last 13 innings in his last two starts, but the fact is that the Marlins are still a subpar team, especially on the road. Mahle has given up just six earned in his last three starts covering 17.1 innings, and I’m expecting him to put forth another strong outing, so I’ll lay the juice with the Reds on Saturday.

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