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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - 7/29/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Washington Nationals (52-51) at Miami Marlins (44-61)

MLB Baseball: Sunday, July 29, 2018 at 1:10 pm (Marlins Park)

J Hellickson (4-1) (3.44) vs. J Urena (2-10) (4.63)

The Line: Miami Marlins +125 / Washington Nationals -145 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS-Florida, MASN

The Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins meet in the finale of their four game NL East division set in MLB action from Marlins Park on Sunday.

The Washington Nationals will look to win the series after dropping game three on Saturday by a final score of 2-1 in extra innings. Daniel Murphy accounted for the lone RBI for the Nats in the loss, while Trea Turner went 2 for 5 and Ryan Zimmerman and Juan Soto each added a base hit with none of Washington’s five hits going for extra bases in the loss. Gio Gonzalez gave up one run on three hits while walking and striking out four apiece, not factoring in the decision. Kelvin Herrera took the loss to fall to 1-1 this season. Jeremy Hellickson will start the finale and is 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. In his career, Hellickson is 4-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 44 strikeouts against Miami.

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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - 7/29/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins will look to salvage a split after earning a win in game three on Saturday. J.T. Realmuto and Yadiel Rivera each had an RBI with Rivera opening the scoring for the fish, while Realmuto’s RBI single walked off the Nationals in the 10th. Miguel Rojas went 2 for 4 while Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro and Magneuris Sierra each added a base hit as well in the win. Trevor Richards threw six shutout innings, allowing just three hits while striking out eight, not factoring in the decision. Brett Graves picked up the win to improve to 1-1 this season. Jose Urena will start game four and is 2-10 with a 4.63 ERA and 93 strikeouts this season. In his career, Urena is 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA and 21 strikeouts against Washington.

Washington is 6-0 in Hellickson’s last 6 starts against a team with a losing record and 4-1 in their last 5 division games while the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. Miami is 7-20 in Urena’s last 27 starts and 1-5 in their last 6 game 4 matchups while the over is 4-0 in Urena’s last 4 division starts. Washington is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Miami.

I kinda feel bad for Urena, as the guy is a decent pitcher, but he just can’t catch a break. However in this line of work, it’s not about feeling bad for a guy, it’s about wins and losses and the fact is that Urena just isn’t the guy to get you a win for the Marlins this season. Hellickson has been a solid arm for the Nationals this season, and while he doesn’t have the win-loss record to show for it, he’s pitched quite efficiently this season. Urena has allowed five runs in back-to-back starts and the Nationals can’t afford many more slip-ups if they’re going to keep pace in the NL East race, so I’ll side with the Nationals to win the series on Sunday.

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