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Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 7/31/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies (58-48) at Boston Red Sox (75-33)

MLB Baseball: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 7:10 pm (Fenway Park)

J Arrieta (8-6) (3.45) vs. D Pomeranz (1-4) (6.91)

The Line: Boston Red Sox -150 / Philadelphia Phillies +140 --- Over/Under: 10 See the Latest Odds

TV: NESN, NSPA, ESPN

The Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox meet Tuesday in MLB action at Fenway Park.

The Philadelphia Phillies could use a feel good win here in order to snap a four-game losing streak. The Phillies have allowed 12 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in six of their last eight games. The Philadelphia Phillies have lost five of their last seven games when allowing more than three runs. Offensively, Odubel Herrera leads the Phillies with 113 hits and 58 RBI while Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins have combined for 199 hits and 105 RBI. Jake Arrieta gets the ball, and he is 8-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 80 strikeouts this season. Arrieta is 1-4 with a 5.27 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his career against the Red Sox.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 7/31/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox look to stay hot after winning six of their last eight games. The Red Sox have scored 15 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in five of their last eight games. The Boston Red Sox have won six of their last seven games when scoring more than one run. J.D. Martinez leads the Red Sox with 125 hits and 89 RBI while Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi have combined for 233 hits and 118 RBI. Drew Pomeranz gets the ball, and he is 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. Pomeranz is 0-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his career against the Phillies.

The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 Tuesday games, 18-40 in their last 58 interleague road games and 5-0 in Arrietas last 5 starts. The Red Sox are 40-11 in their last 51 interleague games, 37-15 in their last 52 Tuesday games and 16-6 in Pomeranzs last 22 home starts. The Phillies are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings in Boston, 12-30 in the last 42 meetings and the under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings.

The Boston Red Sox are obviously the better, hotter team in this spot, so they should be the favorites. But we're getting plus money to fade Pomeranz. You know, a pitcher who has allowed no less than three runs in each of his last five starts and somebody who has an ERA of 7.85 with an allowed batting average of .355 at home. Arrieta isn't the Arrieta of old, but he has allowed three or less runs in five of his last seven starts and is a big game pitcher who gives his team a chance to win more times than not. I like the plus money here.

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