San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 8/11/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies (64-50) at San Diego Padres (46-71)
MLB Baseball: Saturday, August 11, 2018 at 8:40 pm (PETCO Park)
Aaron Nola (12-3) (2.37) vs. Walker Lockett (0-2) (9.28)
The Line: San Diego Padres +170 / Philadelphia Phillies -190 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: FS-San Diego
The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres meet in game two of their three game set from Petco Park in MLB action on Saturday.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to rebound after being shutout in the series opener by a final score of 2-0. Nick Williams and Maikel Franco each went 2 for 4 while Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Jorge Alfaro each contributed a base hit as none of Philadelphia’s eight hits went for extra bases in the loss. Zach Eflin took the loss, falling to 8-4 this season after allowing both runs on five hits while striking out eight over six innings of work. Aaron Nola will start game two and is 12-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 144 strikeouts this season. In his career, Nola is 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 30 strikeouts against San Diego.
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The San Diego Padres will look to push for the sweep on Sunday with a win here after taking the series opener on Friday. Austin Hedges and Freddy Galvis each went 2 for 3 with an RBI to make up San Diego’s scoring in the win, with Hedges hitting a solo homer, his 9th long ball of the season. Eric Hosmer went 3 for 4 to cap off San Diego’s offense as well in the win. Jacob Nix got the win after throwing six shutout innings in hit major league debut, allowing just four hits while striking out four. Kirby Yates closed out the 9th for his 4th save of the season. Walker Lockett will start game two and is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Lockett’s first career start against Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 9-1 in Nola’s last 10 starts against a team with a losing record and 6-2 in their last 8 games overall while the under is 7-0 in their last 7 road games. San Diego is 1-11 in their last 12 home games against a right-handed starter and 5-16 in their last 21 home games while the over is 13-3 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 42-20 in the last 62 meetings between these two teams and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings between these two teams in San Diego.
I got burned by the Phillies on Friday, and if I’m wrong again here, I’ll bite the bullet, but there’s no way I’m going against Nola here. Lockett has allowed 11 earned runs in 10.2 innings this season and has yet to make it past the 5th inning in either of his two starts. Nola is the staff ace, so while the price is steep for a Phillies team that’s up and down lately, you’ve still made more than you’ve lost by fading the Padres this season. I see no other choice but backing Philly here and to cut down the heavy juice I’ll side with the Phillies on the run line.