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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 8/12/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies (64-51) at San Diego Padres (47-71)

MLB Baseball: Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 3:40 pm (PETCO Park)

J Arrieta (9-6) (3.11) vs. Joey Lucchesi (5-6) (3.70)

The Line: San Diego Padres +100 / Philadelphia Phillies -115 --- Over/Under: 8 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS-San Diego

The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres square off in the rubber match of their three game set from Petco Park in MLB action on Sunday.

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to win the set after evening the series up at one win apiece following their 5-1 victory in game two on Saturday. Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco each had a solo home run while Nick Williams went 2 for 3 with a triple and an RBI and Asdrubal Cabrera went 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI. Carlos Santana added a run as well to round out the Phillies’ scoring in the win, while Rhys Hoskins added a base hit to cap off Philadelphia’s offense. Aaron Nola got the win to improve to 13-3 this season after tossing six shutout innings, allowing just four hits while striking out five. Jake Arrieta will start game three and is 9-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 91 strikeouts this season. In his career, Arrieta is 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 22 strikeouts against San Diego.

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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 8/12/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres will be looking to rebound and to win the set after their loss in game two on Saturday. Manuel Margot accounted for the lone San Diego run in the loss, while Cory Spangenberg went 3 for 4 with a triple. Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe each had two hits with a double to round out the Padres’ offense in the loss. Walker Lockett took the loss to fall to 0-3 this season, allowing all five runs on five hits over 4.1 innings of work. Joey Lucchesi will start game three and is 5-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season. This will be Lucchesi’s first career start against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 6-1 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts and 2-7 in their last 9 road games while the under is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games overall. San Diego is 1-4 in Lucchesi’s last 5 home starts and 5-17 in their last 22 home games while the over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games. The over is 15-4 in the last 19 meetings between these two teams in San Diego.

Lucchesi has been a decent arm for the Padres this season, but the fact is that we are getting a very good price with a solid Phillies team that has something to play for right now unlike San Diego. Like I said yesterday, you’ve made more money than you’ve lost this season by fading the Padres, and I’ll do so once more as the Phillies have an edge on the mound and that’s enough for me to lean Philly.

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