Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies - 10/2/18 MLB NL Wild Card Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Colorado Rockies (91-72) at Chicago Cubs (95-68)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 2, 2018 at 8:00 pm (Wrigley Field)
Freeland vs. Lester
The Line: Chicago Cubs -120 / Colorado Rockies +110 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds
The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs meet Tuesday in the National League Wild Card MLB game at Wrigley Field.
The Colorado Rockies are coming off a 2-5 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, a game in which the offense didn’t produce until the final three outs. The Rockies offense has now been held to three or less runs in eight of their last 16 games and have lost 11 of their last 15 games when scoring four or less runs. The Colorado Rockies better bring their big boy bats for this contest if they have any chance of surviving on the road in this contest. The Rockies are still looking for their first playoff victory since the 2009 MLB season. Charlie Blackmon leads the Rockies with 182 hits and 70 RBI while Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have combined for 349 hits and 218 RBI. Kyle Freeland gets the ball, and he is 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 173 strikeouts this season. Freeland is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 11 strikeouts in his career against the Cubs. Freeland has zero postseason pitching experience.
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The Chicago Cubs are coming off a tough 1-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, a game in which they got just three hits and struck out eight times. The Chicago Cubs have now scored one or less runs in four of their last eight games and have lost seven of their last eight games when scoring four or less runs. If the offense doesn’t pick up, it’s obviously going to be a quick exit for the Cubbies. The Cubs have made at least the NLCS each of the last three years, so nobody should be counting out the Cubs just yet despite some of their struggles. Javier Baez leads the Cubs with 176 hits and 111 RBI while Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist have combined for 299 hits and 159 RBI. Jon Lester gets the ball, and he is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 149 strikeouts this season. Lester is 1-3 with a 2.25 ERA and 40 strikeouts in his career against the Rockies. Lester is 9-7 with a 2.55 ERA and 124 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Rockies are 1-8 in their last 9 playoff games, 4-1 in Freelands last 5 road starts and 21-6 in Freelands last 27 starts. The Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games, 38-13 in Lesters last 51 home starts and 37-16 in Lesters last 53 starts. The Rockies are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago and the under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. The under is 4-0 in Lesters last 4 starts vs. Rockies.
The Rockies are in a rough schedule spot, as traveling from LA to get ready for another pressure game won't be easy. The good news is the Rockies offense is due for abreakout performance, and Freeland has given up just four runs in his last 19.2 innings. Freeland also had a 2.61 ERA in 38 innings in the month of September, and he hasn't given up more than three runs since late July. Lester has allowed a combined three runs in his last 18 innings, but he has had issues with control at times this season and is allowing a .291 batting average in 179 career at bats against current Rockies. The Cubs should be favored, but Lester isn't some elite pitcher who I trust in win or die games. I'll take a shot with the Rockies for the upset.