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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees - 10/8/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Boston Red Sox (109-55) at New York Yankees (102-63)

MLB Baseball: Monday, October 8, 2018 at 7:40 pm (Yankee Stadium)

R Porcello (17-7) (4.27) vs. Luis Severino (19-8) (3.32)

The Line: New York Yankees -175 / Boston Red Sox +150 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: TBS

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet Monday in game three of the MLB ALDS at Yankee Stadium. 

The Boston Red Sox hope to retake the lead in this series after losing game two, 2-6. The Red Sox pitching fell apart early in the game two loss, and they’ve now allowed four or more runs in 10 of their last 13 games. The Boston Red Sox have a shaky bullpen and don’t have the dominant starters of other playoff teams, so we could possibly be seeing a weakness in what has been the best team for much of the season. It’s key the Red Sox get better production from their starter on the road in this contest. J.D. Martinez leads the Red Sox with three hits and three RBI while Ian Kinsler and Xander Bogaerts have combined for four hits and three RBI. Rick Porcello gets the ball, and he is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and 190 strikeouts this season. Porcello is 10-8 with a 3.11 ERA and 109 strikeouts in his career against the Yankees. Porcello is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 23 strikeouts in his postseason career.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees - 10/8/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees have a chance to win their third postseason game already this year by taking a 2-1 series lead. The Yankees are averaging five runs in the first two games of this series and have scored four or more runs in 18 of their last 25 games. As long as the Yankees offense comes to play, you have to like their chances to win against just about anybody in the league. The New York Yankees also have six homers in three games, which seems to spark a new level of confidence for this club. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with seven hits and four RBI while Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit have combined for six hits and five RBI. Luis Severino gets the ball, and he is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 220 strikeouts this season. Severino is 4-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 76 strikeouts in his career against the Red Sox. Severino is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Red Sox are 41-18 in their last 59 games following an off day, 7-3 in Porcellos last 10 road starts and 5-1 in Porcellos last 6 starts. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day, 23-4 in Severinos last 27 home starts and 40-12 in Severinos last 52 starts. The Red Sox are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in New York, 4-1 in Porcellos last 5 starts vs. Yankees and the Yankees are 4-0 in Severinos last 4 home starts vs. Red Sox.

Despite the walk issue, Severino was solid in his four innings against the Oakland A's in a pressure situation and seems to have that live arm again, as he did have some struggles and didn't look like himself back in August. Severino should be able to build on that confidence, and he was lights out at home over the course of the season, producing a 2.74 ERA and a .217 allowed batting average. Assuming Porcello starts for the Red Sox, he's had issues keeping the ball in the park this season and is allowing a .253 batting average on the road. I don't want to see that against a Yankees offense that has big bats and only needs one or two swings for it to feel like you've been hit by an avalanche. I liked the Yankees to win this series before it started, and with home field on their side and their ace on the hill, you have to really like them in game three. The Red Sox are in trouble in this spot.

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