Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros - 10/17/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Boston Red Sox (112-56) at Houston Astros (107-60)
MLB Baseball: Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 8:39 pm (Minute Maid Park)
R Porcello (18-7) (4.18) vs. C Morton (15-3) (3.18)
The Line: Houston Astros -145 / Boston Red Sox +135 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds
The Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros meet in game four of the ALCS from Minute Maid Park in MLB action on Wednesday.
The Boston Red Sox will look to take a 3-1 lead and close the series in game five after making it 2-1 in the set with an 8-2 win on Tuesday. Jackie Bradley Jr. led the BoSox with a grand slam, while Steve Pearce added a solo home run and Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Mitch Moreland each had an RBI with Martinez adding a double to round out Boston’s scoring in the win. Andrew Benintendi had two hits while Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez each added a base hit in the win. Nathan Eovaldi got the win after giving up both runs on six hits over six innings of work. Rick Porcello will start game four and is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 3 strikeouts this postseason. In his career, Porcello is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA and 26 strikeouts against Houston.
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The Houston Astros will look to bounce back and make this a best-of-3 set after dropping game three on Tuesday. Alex Bregman went 2 for 3 with a double and an RBI and Marwin Gonzalez added an RBI of his own to round out Houston’s scoring in defeat. Jose Altuve went 2 for 3 while George Springer and Carlos Correa each had a base hit in the losing effort. Dallas Keuchel gave up two runs over five innings, not factoring in the decision while Joe Smith took the loss, falling to 0-1. Charlie Morton will start game four and was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 201 strikeouts in the regular season. In his career, Morton is 3-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 20 strikeouts against Boston.
Boston is 5-2 in Porcello’s last 7 starts against the AL West and 5-2 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games overall. Houston is 13-4 in their last 17 home games and 1-4 in Morton’s last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Houston.
I can understand why Boston would be a trendy pick on Wednesday, as a 108-win team at plus money going against a pitcher making his 2018 postseason debut in Morton, who hasn’t pitched since the end of September. However, I expect Houston to bounce back with their backs up against the wall in this one, and Porcello does have an ERA over five against Houston in his career, so I’ll lay the juice in what I feel is a must-win situation for Houston on Wednesday.