Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers - 10/26/18 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Boston Red Sox (116-56) at Los Angeles Dodgers (99-76)
MLB Baseball: Friday, October 26, 2018 at 8:09 pm (Dodger Stadium)
Rick Porcello () () vs. Walker Buehler (8-5) (2.92)
The Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -160 / Boston Red Sox +144 --- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers meet Friday in game three of the World Series at Dodger Stadium.
The Boston Red Sox can all but wrap up the series here with a victory and taking a 3-0 lead. The Red Sox have won six straight postseason games and are getting the job done in every area, as the offense is producing runs, the pitching has allowed four or less runs in seven of their 11 postseason games and the defense shows up nightly. The Red Sox are simply showing the world why they were the best team all year, as the balance and small details are on point. The Boston Red Sox have won 12 of their last 16 games when allowing less than seven runs. Andrew Benintendi leads the Red Sox with 13 hits and five RBI while J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have combined for 25 hits and 16 RBI. Rick Porcello gets the ball, and he is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and 190 strikeouts this season. Porcello is 1-0 with a 5.91 ERA and four strikeouts in his career against the Dodgers. Porcello is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 29 strikeouts in his postseason career.
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The Los Angeles Dodgers need a victory here in order to give themselves a real chance of winning this series. The Dodgers offense continues to struggle throughout the playoffs, as they’ve been held to four or less runs in six of their last eight games. Sure, the pitching could be better, but the Dodgers were supposed to be this explosive offensive team that hits homers and scores by the boatload, and this has been a team that can’t hit with guys in scoring position and fails to have that big inning constantly. The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost nine of their last 16 games when scoring five or less runs. Justin Turner leads the Dodgers with 15 hits and four RBI while Manny Machado and Yasiel Puig have combined for 24 hits and 17 RBI. Walker Buehler gets the ball, and he is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 151 strikeouts this season. This will be Buehler’s first career game against the Red Sox. Buehler is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff road games, 4-1 in Porcellos last 5 road starts and 7-1 in Porcellos last 8 starts. The Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 home games, 0-5 in their last 5 games following an off day and 7-3 in Buehlers last 10 home starts. The Red Sox are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. The under is 7-1-1 in Buehlers last 9 starts overall and the over is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 road games.
It's odd to me that the Dodgers are favorites here, simply because Kershaw was an underdog for the first time since 2012 in game one. I figured the Red Sox would be the favorites in every game this series when that happened. It's hard to turn down the plus money with a Red Sox team that simply finds ways to win and had no trouble winning on the road in New York and Houston. However, Porcello isn't a pitcher I trust in big spots, and in 117 career at bats against current Dodgers, he's allowing a .274 batting average and five homers. Ian Kinsler is the only Boston player to have faced Buehler, and he was highly effective in his last performance against the Brewers in a big spot. Buehler has filthy stuff and a live arm, and it will be tough for a Red Sox lineup that's never faced him before. I'm also worried about the DH issues for the Red Sox and possibly having to play JD in the outfield. There's advantages for the Dodgers now that they're back at home. I don't love the price at all, but I do expect them to win.