New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 9/4/20 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 9/4/20 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Phillies (17-15) at New York Mets (16-21)

MLB Baseball: Friday, September 4, 2020 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Jake Arrieta (2-4) (6.49) vs. Rick Porcello (1-4) (6.00)

The Line: New York Mets -115 / Philadelphia Phillies +105 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet Friday in MLB action from Citi Field. 

The Phillies are coming out of a four-game set versus the Nationals. Philadelphia took the first three games of that series 8-6, 6-0 and 3-0. In the finale Thursday the Phillies had to have 10 innings to get the win, but they got it done and completed the sweep 6-5. As for the Mets, they played a one-off game versus the Yankees Thursday. In that one, the Mets came back from both four and three runs down to bang out a 9-7 walk-off win in 10 innings. Check back all season long for free MLB picks and MLB predictions for every game at Sports Chat Place. 

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The Phillies had a 4-2 lead going into the fifth inning on Thursday, but had to rely on extras to manage a win. Didi Gregorius posted two hits, an RBI and a run in that one, and starting pitcher Zach Eflin went 6.0 innings with seven hits, four earned and five strikeouts. 

For the Friday starting role, the Phillies are going with Jake Arrieta on the mound. This year in six starts, Arrieta is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. On his career, Arrieta is 108-79 with a 3.77 ERA and 1336 Ks in 1495.2 innings. 

Over on the Mets’ side, they completed an improbable comeback after falling behind both 4-0 and 7-4 in the Thursday game, and won the matchup on a walk-off two-run homer in the 10th from Pete Alonso. Starting pitcher Robert Gsellman had a rough outing with 1.2 innings, four hits, four walks, four earned and no strikeouts.
In the Friday starting pitcher role, New York will send out Rick Porcello. In seven starts this year, Porcello is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 27 Ks in 33.0 innings. Porcello is 150-122 on his MLB career with a 4.39 ERA and 1534 Ks in 2070.1 innings. 

The Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven during game one of a series and 30-61 in their last 91 games as an underdog. Philadelphia is also 5-12 in their last 17 road games and the over is 3-0-1 in their last four during game one of a series. 

Meanwhile, the Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning record and 2-7 in their last nine during game one of a series. New York is 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite and the over is 6-0 in their last six during game one of a series. 

Pick: I’m going with the Phillies. Both these pitchers need good bounce-back outings here, though. Arrieta managed just 1.1 innings and 46 pitches in his last game, and his bloated 6.49 ERA is very uncharacteristic. As for Porcello, he’s given up a .321 opposing BA and has managed quality starts in just two of seven outings. Both guys should be better here, but Arrieta probably has the higher ceiling and better chance at success. 

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Andrew’s Pick Philadelphia Phillies +105

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.