Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 4/1/21

The San Francisco Giants visit the Seattle Mariners in MLB action from T-Mobile Park on Opening Day.

The San Francisco Giants come into this one looking to take another step forward, improving on their winning percentage for the 4th straight season, albeit in a condensed 60-game campaign, with a 29-31 record, good for a .483 win percentage, but that still kept San Fran out of the postseason for a 4th straight year. The Giants parted ways with pieces like Drew Smyly, Trevor Cahill, Jeff Samardzija and Tyson Ross on the mound, but potentially improved by signing the likes of Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez as well as bolstering the bullpen with Matt Wisler and Jake McGee and bringing in Tommy La Stella for some infield depth as well. The Giants also possess one of the more underrated batting orders in all of baseball, with pieces like Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey to anchor the group while Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto are back as the stalwarts in the Giants’ starting rotation. Speaking of Gausman, he’s expected to get the start here after going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 79 strikeouts last season. In his career, Gausman is 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 30 strikeouts against Seattle.

The Seattle Mariners will look to take a step forward in what’s been classified as a rebuild year following their 27-33 record in 2020, missing the playoffs once again, making 2001 the last time we saw the Mariners in the postseason. The big watch for this year will be to see what’s to be of Jarred Kelenic but the development of talent will affect Seattle as it will many other teams with the cancellation of Minor League Baseball last season. The Mariners also brought back James Paxton to start alongside Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi and the improving Kendall Graveman, but this pitching staff is expected to give up a lot of runs. The M’s also bring back some solid position players like Evan White, Kyle Lewis and Kyle Seager while JP Crawford is hoping to regain some of the form from his days in Philadelphia. The aforementioned Marco Gonzales will likely get the opening day nod on the mound after going 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 64 strikeouts last season. In his career, Gonzales is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 4 strikeouts against the Giants.

San Francisco is 8-2 in their last 10 games against the AL West and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite. Seattle is 8-21 in their last 29 games against the NL West and 11-5 in their last 16 games against a right-handed starter while the under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games overall. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

I understand why the Giants would be slight favorites here as not much is expected from the Mariners from the word go this season. However, we made a killing backing Marco Gonzales last year and he alone was responsible for a quarter of the team’s wins on the mound. Gonzales was also 4-0 at home last season with an ERA just over three, so with guys still getting used to being at 100% game speed, I think Gonzales can push Seattle to an opening day win here.