Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 4/12/21

The San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet in MLB action from PNC Park on Monday night.

The San Diego Padres will look to build on their 2-0 win over the Texas Rangers in Sunday’s series finale. Both of San Diego’s runs came via the long ball, as Trent Grisham and Manny Machado each had a solo home run. Wil Myers added a double while Eric Hosmer and Jake Cronenworth each had a base hit as well in the victory for the Padres as San Diego mustered up just five hits as a team in the victory. Adrian Morejon threw less than an inning in the start, but Craig Stammen picked up the win in relief while Mark Melancon closed things out for his 5th save of the season. Yu Darvish will start here and is 0-0 with a 4.22 ERA and 13 strikeouts this season. In his career, Darvish is 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 38 strikeouts against Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to build on their 7-1 win in Sunday’s series finale against the Chicago Cubs. JT Brubaker helped his own cause on the mound with a hit and three RBIs while Wilmer Difo had a pinch-hit two-run homer. Colin Moran and Dexter Fowler each had an RBI to cap off Pittsburgh’s scoring in the win with Fowler logging a double. Jacob Stallings went 2 for 3 with a double of his own and Bryan Reynolds had four hits while Phillip Evans added a pair of hits. Kevin Newman also pitched in a base knock to round out Pittsburgh’s offense as the Pirates cranked out 14 hits as a team in the win. Brubaker got the win on the mound after giving up one run on four hits with four strikeouts over 5.1 innings of work. Trevor Cahill will start here and is 0-1 with a 15.75 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season. In his career, Cahill is 2-5 with a 3.97 ERA and 57 strikeouts against the Padres.

San Diego is 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 games overall while the under is 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 10-1 in their last 11 games against the NL West and 26-58 in their last 84 games overall while the under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

I’m trying to make a case for the Pirates as the Padres haven’t been in a lot of high-scoring games this season, and low-scoring matchups make it a little bit nervy when you’re trying to get a run line cover which to me is the only way to play the Padres here. However, the starting pitching gap between Darvish and Cahill is too wide for the Pirates to overcome here, so I’ll back San Diego with the -1.5 handicap on the run line.