Cincinnati Reds (45-41) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (51-36)
July 8, 2021 8:10 pm EDT
The Line: Milwaukee Brewers -120 / Cincinnati Reds +110; Over/Under: 8.5
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The Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers meet in an NL Central division matchup in MLB action from American Family Field on Thursday.
The Cincinnati Reds will look to build on a 5-2 win over the Royals from Wednesday night. Jonathan India led the charge, going 3 for 4 with a double and two RBIs while Shogo Akiyama, Tyler Naquin and Mike Freeman all had an RBI with Akiyama going 2 for 4 with a double as well. Eugenio Suarez also chipped in a double while Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker and Tyler Stephenson all had base hits as well to finish off Cincinnati’s offense as a team in the win. Sonny Gray got the win to improve to 2-4 on the year after allowing two earned runs on seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings of work. Heath Hembree closed the 9th for his 4th save of the season. Tyler Mahle will stat here and is 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 112 strikeouts this season. In his career, Mahle is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA and 39 strikeouts against Milwaukee.
The Milwaukee Brewers will look to build on their split of the doubleheader with the New York Mets on Wednesday, dropping game one by a count of 4-3 before rebounding with a 5-0 win in game two. Game one saw Luis Urias have a solo home run, while Jace Peterson had a solo home run and Christian Yelich added an RBI as well. Corbin Burnes gave up one run on six hits while striking out eight, not factoring in the decision over 5.2 innings. Brent Suter took the loss, falling to 8-4 on the year. Game two saw all of Milwaukee’s offense come via the long ball as Manny Pina and Luis Urias each had a two-run home run while Willy Adames had a solo home run. Brett Anderson threw four shutout innings, but it was Jake Cousins ended up with the win in relief. Adrian Houser will start here and is 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season. In his career, Houser is 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 26 strikeouts against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 12-2 in their last 14 division games and 5-1 in their last 6 games overall while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass. Milwaukee is 6-1 in their last 7 division games and 27-11 in their last 38 games overall while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
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I get the case that could be made for either side here, but for a free play I’m looking at the under here. Mahle pitches much better from an ERA standpoint on the road and Houser isn’t the best of Milwaukee’s pitchers by any means, but he’s more than capable of keeping the runs at a premium here. Give me the under in this spot.