MLB Picks

Home Run Derby 2021 MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 7/12/21

2021 Home Run Derby
July 12, 2021 8:00 pm EDT

We head to Coors Field Monday night for the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby. There are a lot of prop bets available for this event and odds for every player participating, so it’s a good way to potentially make some money during the few light days of the sports schedule.

Let’s break this thing down and pad the bankroll before the second half of the MLB season begins.

Shohei Ohtani beats Juan Soto, -200 – We’re not going to get rich with these odds, but Shohei Ohtani is the hottest player in the league and is averaging a homer every 10.2 at bats. With 33 home runs, Ohtani has a legit chance to hit 60 bombs for the first time since Mark McGwire in 1999. Juan Soto is better than what he’s shown this year, but he’s also fourth on the Nationals with 11 homers. It would be quite an upset to see Ohtani go out in the first round.

Betting Ohtani Is Stupid

Trevor Story beats Joey Gallo, +140 – Joey Gallo should be favored here, as he’s likely going to hit at least 40 homers for the third time in his career and he has about as much raw power as anyone in the field. However, there’s value with Trevor Story here and the plus money. Yes, Story’s power numbers have dropped the last two years, but he still averaged 31 homers in his first four seasons and he knows this park better than anybody. Guys hitting in their own park have had success in past derby’s. Also, Story could be traded in the next couple of weeks, so I don’t doubt him wanting to put on a show one last time for the home fans.

Matt Olson beats Trey Mancini, -190 – Matt Olson has already topped 20 home runs for the fourth time in the last five years, and the way he gets on top of balls makes him a serious contender. Trey Mancini should get a lot of love from the fans given that he just beat cancer and has been one of the few bright spots for the Orioles this year. Unfortunately, Mancini just doesn’t have the raw power to survive an event like this one. Olson should win this round rather comfortably. 

Pete Alonso beats Salvador Perez, -175 – Pete Alonso isn’t nearly the power hitter he was his rookie season when he hit 53 bombs, but his max exit velocity is still elite and he has an edge given he won the derby in 2019. Alonso understands how to pace himself and when to push the gas to get the job done. Salvador Perez should be thrilled to hit in Coors, as he’s played just one game in this park. However, no catcher has ever won the derby and his big frame is likely going to work against him. Fatigue is a thing in this competition. You can argue Alonso should be a bigger favorite in this matchup.

Picks To Win, Alonso +550 And Olson +600 – Ohtani should be favored to win for obvious reasons, but the favorite and obvious choice often fizzles out in this event. We’re getting over five times our money with a guy in Alonso who has already won in this format and has three homers in six career games at Coors. Also, Olson has the type of swing that usually produces success in this event and will lead to a lot of balls driven out. Olson won’t have to put a ton of work into hitting homers in this park.

I also like the idea of backing a guy in each side of the bracket, as it not only doubles your chances of winning but can create a no lose situation or even a hedging opportunity in later rounds. In 2018, we were sitting pretty when we backed Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and they squared off in the final. I like these odds on both of these players.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Pete Alonso +550 And Matt Olson +600

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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