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Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 7/30/2021

Cincinnati Reds (54-49) vs. New York Mets (54-47)
July 30, 2021 7:10 pm EDT
The Line: New York Mets -110 / Cincinnati Reds +100; Over/Under: 8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets meet in MLB action from Citi Field on Friday.

The Cincinnati Reds will attempt to build on their 7-4 win over the Chicago Cubs from Thursday’s affair. Joey Votto hit another home run, this time a two-run shot, while Kyle Farmer went 3 for 5 with an RBI and a double. Tucker Barnhart added a pair of RBIs as well while Aristides Aquino chipped in one of his own and Jesse Winker went 2 for 4 with a double. Luis Castillo had a pair of hits while Tyler Naquin, Jonathan India and Shogo Akiyama added base hits as well to finish off Cincinnati’s offense as a team in the win. Castillo got the win on the mound after allowing three runs on seven hits while striking out eight over six innings of work to improve to 5-10 on the year. Sonny Gray will start here and is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA and 89 strikeouts this season.

The New York Mets will look to bounce back from a 6-3 loss at the hands of the Braves last time out. Pete Alonso had a two-run home run while Dominic Smith added a pair of hits and an RBI to cap off the scoring for the Mets in the loss. Jonathan Villar had three hits with a double while Brandon Nimmo, James McCann and Brandon Drury each had a pair of hits with Nimmo adding a double to the cause as well. Taijuan Walker ended up with the loss, falling to 7-5 on the year after allowing five earned runs on six hits while striking out seven over five innings of work. Carlos Carrasco will make his Mets and season debut in this game after going 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 82 strikeouts for Cleveland last year.

Cincinnati is 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 18-7 in their last 25 Friday games while the over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games overall. New York is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 15-5 in their last 20 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 7-1 in their last 8 Friday games.

This is a tough one to call as the Reds have been playing the better baseball, but Sonny Gray hasn’t been a part of that, giving up 13 runs in his last eight innings of work. On the other hand, I’m not running to back Carlos Carrasco in his first start of the year when it’s going to take time to get back to game speed. Kudos to Carrasco for battling back and getting to this point, but it’s a game where I think the offenses take advantage of the starting pitching matchup and get us to the over with relative ease.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick: Over 8.5

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Chris Ruffolo

Chris joined the Sports Chat Place team in August 2016 and has a proven system that combines multiple analytical and situational statistics and trends to give out thousands of winning picks over the last three years with winning records across all of the top leagues, Follow Chris Ruffolo on Twitter @ruffthepickdawg

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