Mariners vs. Guardians Pick – MLB Predictions & Odds 3/30/23

The Cleveland Guardians and the Seattle Mariners meet in MLB opening day action from T-Mobile Park on Thursday.

Cleveland Guardians Team Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into the 2023 season looking to build on a fairly successful 2022 campaign, finishing the year 92-70 with their first division title since 2018. The Guardians took out Tampa Bay in the wild card round before falling to New York in the ALDS. The Guardians kept the majority of their batting order intact, with Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Jose Ramirez all back as well as Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw. The pitching rotation is also still holding strong as well, led by Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie with Cal Quantill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac making up the back end of that group. It’s still a solid rotation, but Civale and Plesac need to be better with McKenzie on the shelf for the first couple of months of the season with an injury. The bullpen was another strength for the Guardians and it’s intact as well, led by Emmanuel Clase as the closer and James Karinchak and Sam Hentges as solid set up men for Trevor Stephan in the 8^th before turning to Clase in the 9^th. Only time will tell if the Guardians can repeat the same magic from 2022, but the pieces are there to do it. Shane Bieber will get the start here after going 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts last season.

Seattle Mariners Team Recap

The Seattle Mariners made one of the MLB’s biggest splashes last year, making the playoffs for the first time since 2001 and finishing with back-to-back 90+ win seasons for the first time since 2002/03 after going 90-72. The M’s would take out Toronto in the Wild Card round before getting swept by the Astros. The Mariners have one of the more intriguing lineups in the majors, with some solid returning talent like future MVP Julio Rodriguez as well as guys like Ty France, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and J.P. Crawford. The Mariners also have a loaded rotation that can go toe-to-toe one through five with some of the best out there, led by Luis Castillo and flanked by Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and either Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales at the back end. It will be interesting to see if the Mariners can replicate the success from 2022, or if there’s still work to be done in Seattle. Luis Castillo will start here after going 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 167 strikeouts last season.

Trends

Cleveland is 26-8 in their last 34 games overall and 19-7 in their last 26 series-opening matchups while the under is 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. Seattle is 7-3 in their last 10 home games and 2-9 in their last 11 series-opening games while the over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against the AL Central

Pick

I’m going with the under here. These are two loaded batting orders from top to bottom, but also two solid ace-level pitchers in Bieber and Castillo and even in the opener, I wouldn’t be surprised if both starters went at least six innings here. Even when they depart, these are two rock solid bullpens as well and I think this one has first to 3 written all over it. Give me the under here.