MLB Picks

Marlins vs. Mets Pick – MLB Predictions & Odds 3/30/23

New York Mets (0-0) vs. Miami Marlins (0-0)
March 30, 2023 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins +100 / New York Mets -120; Over/Under: -6.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet in an Opening Day NL East division matchup in MLB action from LoanDepot Park on Thursday.

New York Mets Team Preview

The New York Mets will have a new look in 2023, but will hope to replicate some of the success from 2022, after going 101-61 and making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Mets’ postseason stay was short-lived though, as they were bounced in the NL Wild Card by the San Diego Padres. The Pitching rotation is the biggest adjustment in 2023, as Jacob deGrom is no longer a Met, and neither are Chris Bassitt nor Taijuan Walker. That being said, the Mets were quick to fill the void, signing Justin Verlander to make a nice 1-2 punch alongside Max Scherzer after Verlander led the majors with a 1.75 ERA last season while Scherzer had a career-best 2.29 ERA last year. The Mets also dipped their toe in the international waters, bringing in Kodai Senga from Japan while Jose Quintana comes in as well and Carlos Carrasco was picked up via a team option. The batting order remains pretty much the same at the top, with Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil all back. Max Scherzer will start here and was 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA and 173 strikeouts last season.

Miami Marlins Team Preview

The Miami Marlins will hope for a bigger step in the right direction in 2023, finishing the 2022 season at 69-93 and missing the playoffs for the 18th straight full season (as they did make the playoffs in the shortened 2020 season). The bright spot was Sandy Alcantara winning the Cy Young award in the NL, but the concern for Alcantara was run support. Could that be an issue again? Potentially, but the Marlins have an improved pitching staff that should be able to keep the team in games more often than just when Alcantara was pitching. Jesus Luzardo was a nice pickup, and Trevor Rogers showed signs of improvement last year. Edward Cabrera might’ve been the second-best pitcher in a small sample size for Miami last year and it’ll be interesting to see how he does in 2023 with an increased workload. The Marlins’ batting order made move to improve, bringing in guys like Jean Segura and Luis Arraez while also hoping for healthy seasons from Jazz Chisholm Jr., Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler, but the pieces look to be there for Miami to improve in 2023. Alcantara will get the start on opening day for Miami after going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 207 strikeouts last season.

Trends

New York is 37-17 in their last 54 series-opening matchups and 1-4 in their last 5 road games while the over is 9-2 in their last 11 division games. Miami is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and 10-26 in their last 36 division games while the under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games overall.

Pick

I love the under here. Maybe it’s a bit of a square play considering the pitching on the marquee, but these are two solid arms in Scherzer and Alcantara and I expect them to come out and put on a show on Thursday to kick off the season. I think this could easily be 3-2 or 2-1 whichever way you have it going so give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick: Under 6.5

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Chris Ruffolo

Chris joined the Sports Chat Place team in August 2016 and has a proven system that combines multiple analytical and situational statistics and trends to give out thousands of winning picks over the last three years with winning records across all of the top leagues, Follow Chris Ruffolo on Twitter @ruffthepickdawg

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