Arizona Diamondbacks vs NY Mets Prediction 5/9/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Saturday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Clay Holmes for the start here and Holmes is 4-2 with a 1.69 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ first career start against Arizona. Merrill Kelly will start for the Diamondbacks here and is 1-3 with a 9.95 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Kelly is 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA and 30 strikeouts.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over the Diamondbacks to sit at 15-23 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Detroit Tigers.

Mets Win 4 Of Last 5

Entering Friday, Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 24 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brett Baty has 22 hits with 5 doubles, a triple and 12 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 30 hits with 6 doubles, 2 home runs and 13 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 36 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 16 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 25 hits with 4 doubles and 4 home runs this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Mets on Friday to sit at 17-20 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Diamondbacks Drop 7 Of Last 8

Going into Friday, Corbin Carroll has 32 hits including 7 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs and 20 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 9 doubles with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 13 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 hits, with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 31 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 28 hits with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 41 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 22 RBIs.

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 1-3      ERA: 9.95
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-5

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Mets have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites following an extra innings win.
• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last eight Saturday games at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites following an extra innings win.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games at Chase Field against NL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Saturday day games as home underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 1.69
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 1-0

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have won each of their last nine Saturday games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six day games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last five games between the Mets and Diamondbacks at Chase Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last seven day games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine games at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Corbin Carroll has hit at least one home run in four of the Diamondbacks’ last seven home games against the Mets.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 appearances in day games.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.353) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Semien has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Marcus Semien has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Clay Holmes ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.69) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (102).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.349).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (137).

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the Mets here. I just can’t back Merrill Kelly in his current form as he’s been getting absolutely shelled in recent starts and the Mets have started to find ways to win games after their horrid start to the season. I think that the Diamondbacks are in some hot water here so give me the Mets.