In this article we will formulate an Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 28th at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Diamondbacks are Looking for Five Straight
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 55-50 this season and they have won four games in a row. Arizona has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-3 and 9-5. Prior to this series, the Diamondbacks won two out of three against the Royals, won two out of three against the Cubs, and won two out of three against the Blue Jays. Arizona is 10-3 in their last 13 games and they are third in the NL West.
The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a .261 opponent batting average. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 522 runs with a .254 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Ketel Marte is batting .296 with 23 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Diamondbacks this season. Arizona has scored at least four runs in five straight games.
Pirates are Back Down to .500
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 52-52 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost the first two games in this series and they have allowed 13 runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Cardinals, won two out of three against the Phillies, and swept the White Sox in three games. Pittsburgh is 2-4 in their last six games and they are third in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 430 runs with a .232 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .288 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has scored at least four runs in seven of their last eleven games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Yilber Diaz, who is 10-1 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 15.0 innings pitched this year. Diaz has allowed one earned run in two of his three starts, but did allow seven earned runs in his last start against KC. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 10-5 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 121.1 innings pitched this season. Keller has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts.
Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Pirates
- The Diamondbacks have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as underdogs against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Why the Pirates will beat the Diamondbacks
- The Pirates have won each of their last nine games as favorites following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five day games at Chase Field following a win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL West opponents following a road loss.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Twelve of the Pirates’ last 13 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eleven of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last eight day games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four day games at Chase Field.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Ketel Marte has hit a home run in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games.
- Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games.
- Joc Pederson has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in 13 of his last 15 appearances after playing the previous day.
- Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against NL opponents.
- Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
- Randal Grichuk has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
- Christian Walker ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (23) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL West opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in four of the Pirates’ last five road games.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL West opponents.
- Mitch Keller has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL West opponents.
- Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as road favorites.
- Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in each of the Pirates’ last seven games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against NL West opponents.
- Mitch Keller ranks T6th in the league for Wins (10) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Arizona Diamondbacks rank T2nd in the league for runs scored this season (522).
- The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (767).
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for doubles this season (147).
- The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.369).
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Arizona comes into this matchup playing some of their best baseball of the season and they are going for the sweep here. The Diamondbacks are gaining ground on the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West, and they are 28-24 at home. The Pirates are 26-26 on the road and they have cooled off over the last week. Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Keller, who has been very sharp in his last few starts. Arizona is going with Yilber Diaz, who has only made three starts this year, with two of them being solid. Arizona is a team that allows a bunch of runs, but they are also one of the highest scoring offenses. My Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction is for this game to go over the total.