The New York Mets and the Houston Astros meet on Saturday in MLB action from Minute Maid Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Astros vs Mets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Astros vs Mets pick.
New York Mets Betting Preview
In Thursday’s opener of this set, the Mets gave up three runs in the first three innings and couldn’t score until the ninth frame themselves. The result was a 3-1 loss in the end. Francisco Lindor posted the team’s only RBI, while Starling Marte (1-for-3) had the lone run. Juan Soto and Pete Alonso each notched a hit and a pair of walks as well. Starting pitcher Clay Holmes lasted 4.2 innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits and four walks alongside four strikeouts. New York only used two arms out of the bullpen to finish off the game.
In the Friday game two, New York scored twice in the second inning on the way to a 3-1 victory. The Mets only had five hits in the win, with one being a Juan Soto solo home run. Tylor Megill added 5.0 innings with one earned run on three hits and two walks in the starting role.
As a starter for the Saturday matchup, the Mets will send out Griffin Canning. This spring, over four games (three starts), Canning posted a 2-1 record with a nice 1.88 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of work. Last season, Canning had a rough 6-13 run overall with a 5.19 ERA in 32 games (31 starts) total. Over his 171.2 innings during that time, Canning punched out 130 batters. Over his career, Canning is 25-34 with a 4.78 ERA in 99 games (94 starts). He’s got 483 strikeouts in 508.0 total frames. The Mets will meet the Marlins after this series.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
Over on the Astros’ side, they were off and running across the first three innings of Thursday’s win and managed to hang on in the end. Yainer Diaz and Jake Meyers (two hits) each had an RBI along the way. Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, and Jeremy Pena each contributed a run. Starter Framber Valdez was great in his inaugural 2025 outing, posting 7.0 clean frames, four hits, two walks, and four Ks. Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader each had an inning out of the pen.
On Friday in game two, Houston could only muster three hits themselves in the tight loss. The Astros got two hits, one walk, and a run from Jose Altuve. Isaac Paredes had the other knock on a 1-for-4 evening. Hunter Brown pitched 6.0 innings with two earned runs on three walks and four hits.
In the starting pitcher role for game three on Saturday, the Astros are going with Spencer Arrighetti. In his regular-season career among the MLB (which consists of only last season’s campaign), Arrighetti is 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA in 29 games (28 starts). He’s managed 171 strikeouts in 145.0 total innings of work. The Astros will face the Giants following this series.
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last 10 Saturday night games as underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Astros have won 11 of their last 13 home games against the Mets.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against AL West opponents following a road win.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against AL West opponents.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The underdogs have won five of the Astros’ last six games.
- The Astros have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games after playing the previous day.
- The road team has covered the run line in nine of the Astros’ last 10 games.
- The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three home night games.
- The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Astros’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Mets’ last nine road games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 home games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 night games at Daikin Park.
Astros vs Mets Prediction
I’m going to lean toward the Mets. It’ll be interesting to see if Canning can continue his nice run from Spring Training here. Over five seasons of MLB action, Canning has just one winning season (a 5-4 run over 14 games and 13 starts with the Angels in 2021). Any progress back toward the .500 mark following a 6-13 record last year will be welcome, and getting that ERA back near 4.00 would be nice as well.
In any case, the Mets were able to power out a Friday win, thanks to a good pitching performance and some opportunistic hitting early. New York got one clean inning from four different bullpen arms (and zero hits between them) during a nice outing for that unit. The Mets should get a solid appearance from Canning in the Saturday finale, so the stage should be set for another low-scoring victory.