In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, May 8th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-18 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 10-8 home record and are coming off an 8-3 loss at home against the Cubs. They will face the Nationals and the Guardians next.
The Reds have a .220 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.59 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 28. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 10 home runs.
Nick Lodolo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds and last season he had a 9-8 record, 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 15-23 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL West. They have a 6-13 away record and are coming off a 12-2 loss at home against the Dodgers. They will face the Mariners and the Rangers next.
The Astros have a .261 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .429 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.82 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .319 batting average, also adding a team‑high 12 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 27.
Mike Burrows (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1-4 record, 5.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: May 8, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo Record this season: – ERA: –
- Home Record: –
- Last 5 against Astros: –
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The home team has won each of the Reds’ last eight games.
- The Astros have lost each of their last seven night games against the Reds following a loss.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six night games following a loss.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday games.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Astros at Great American Ball Park.
- The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against NL Central opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Mike Burrows Record this season: 1-4 ERA: 5.97
- Road Record: 0-3
- Last 5 against Reds: 0-0
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The underdogs have won each of the Astros’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a road loss.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Astros’ last seven games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Astros have won the first inning in four of their last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last seven games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Astros’ last five night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last five home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Astros’ last 15 night games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four home games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances against AL West opponents.
- Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games.
- Elly De La Cruz ranks T10th in the league in Steals (8) this season.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last eight road games against NL opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (279).
- The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.220).
- The Astros rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (73).
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.82).
Astros vs Reds Prediction
The Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and have won their last four meetings in Cincinnati.
In this Astros vs Reds Prediction, the Reds are coming as -135 home favorites. The Reds have been on a free fall with seven consecutive losses but are putting Lodolo on the mound who will make his season debut and he was elite last season. On the flip side, Burrows has been terrible for the Astros with an almost 6.00 ERA and Houston has now the worst bullpen in baseball. On top of that, the Astros struggle against lefties and have been bad on the road, so I like the value with the home team. Take the Reds on the moneyline.