In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, October 17th at the T-Mobile Park in Game 5 of the ALCS, with both teams being tied 2-2 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 95-76 record this season and were placed first in the AL West. The Mariners have a 53-33 home record and are 94-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-8 home defeat by the Blue Jays in Game 4, and have back-to-back losses. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games.
The Mariners have a .244 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Mariners in hits in the postseason with 12, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average. Jorge Polanco leads the team both in RBI with 8, and in home runs, with 3.
Bryce Miller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 1-0 record, 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the postseason. In the regular season, he had a 4-6 record, 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 99-71 record this season and were placed first in the AL East. They have a 43-42 road record, and are 92-73 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-2 road victory over the Mariners in Game 4 of the series, and have won two straight. Over is 7-2 in their last 9 games.
The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays with 15 hits and he is the team’s best hitter with a .455 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI with 11 and in home runs with 5.
Kevin Gausman (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in the postseason. In the regular season, he had a 10-11 record, 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 17, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Bryce Miller Record this season (inc. playoffs): 5-6 ERA: 5.36
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The underdogs have won each of the last seven games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
- The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last 15 games at T-Mobile Park.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games at T-Mobile Park against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against AL East opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home day games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman Record this season (inc. playoffs): 11-12 ERA: 3.52
- Road Record: 5-6
- Last 5 against Mariners: 1-2
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The road team has won each of the last nine games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
- The Mariners have lost each of their last six games against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games.
- The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last seven games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Blue Jays’ last five road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last nine games as home underdogs.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last five day games at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Blue Jays.
- Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in four of the Mariners’ last five home games against AL East opponents.
- J.P. Crawford has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Bryce Miller has recorded three or more strikeouts in 19 of his last 20 home appearances against AL opponents.
- Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four road games.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
- Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against AL West opponents.
- Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
- The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Mariners, and have won their last 7 visits in Seattle. Over is 10-2 in their last 12 meetings.
In this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. The Blue Jays won back-to-back games in Seattle to tie the series to 2-2, and today have the pitching advantage, as Gausman goes up against Bryce Miller. Miller was good in his two postseason starts for the Mariners, but he was terrible in the regular season, and in his previous home start against the Jays this season, he got torched for 7 earned runs. I don’t trust him to keep a red-hot Toronto squad at bay, so take the Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline in this one.