In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 16th at the T-Mobile Park in Game 4 of the ALCS, with the Mariners having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 95-75 record this season and were placed first in the AL West. The Mariners have a 53-32 home record and are 93-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-13 home defeat by the Blue Jays in Game 3, which ended their three-game winning streak. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games.
The Mariners have a .244 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Mariners in hits in the postseason with 11, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .344 batting average. Jorge Polanco leads the team both in RBI with 8, and in home runs, with 3.
Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in the postseason. In the regular season, he had a 11-8 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 98-71 record this season and were placed first in the AL East. They have a 42-42 road record, and are 91-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 13-4 road victory over the Mariners in Game 3 of the series, which ended their two-game losing streak. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games.
The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Ernie Clement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays with 13 hits and he is the team’s best hitter with a .464 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI with 10 and in home runs with 4.
Max Scherzer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 5-5 record, 5.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 16, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo Record this season (inc. playoffs): 12-8 ERA: 3.42
- Home Record: 6-4
- Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-2
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 home games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five playoff games against AL West opponents.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night playoff games following a win.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have won the first inning in each of their last three home games against AL East opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 games as favorites against American League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer Record this season: 5-5 ERA: 5.19
- Road Record: 2-4
- Last 5 against Mariners: 0-2
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The underdogs have won each of the last six games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
- The Mariners have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last 14 games at T-Mobile Park.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
- The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games.
- The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Blue Jays’ last seven games as underdogs against the Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the last six games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last 11 Thursday night games at T-Mobile Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last six night games.
Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts
- Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in five of the Mariners’ last six games as home favorites against AL opponents.
- Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last five games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
- Luis Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his six previous home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded a hit in each of his last 11 playoff appearances after playing the previous day.
- Luis Castillo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- George Springer has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games against the Mariners.
- Max Scherzer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 12 Thursday appearances against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 15 games as road underdogs against AL opponents.
- Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
- The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
- The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Mariners, and have won their last 6 visits in Seattle. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.
In this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -135 home favorites. The Blue Jays got their first win in Game 3, but are now putting Scherzer on the mound, who has been terrible this season, and even weaker on the road, with a 5.91 ERA. On the flip side, Castillo takes the mound for the Mariners, and he has been amazing at home, with a 2.60 home ERA, and almost unhittable lately, with a 5-0 record and 0.90 ERA across his last 5 starts. The Mariners have a huge pitching advantage, so take Seattle on the moneyline in the first 5 innings of this game.