The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays meet on Thursday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Baltimore Orioles will start Zach Eflin, who was 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 134 strikeouts between Tampa Bay and Baltimore last season. In his career, Eflin is 3-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 39 strikeouts against Toronto. Jose Berrios will get the start for the Blue Jays and was 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 153 strikeouts last season. In his career, Berrios is 10-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 82 strikeouts against Baltimore.
Baltimore Orioles Team Preview
The Baltimore Orioles come into the 2025 season looking to take a step forward after finishing the 2024 campaign with a 91-71 record, making the playoffs for the second straight year but getting bounced in the AL Wild Card in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals. Injuries played a huge part in the Orioles’ highs and lows in 2024, but the core of the roster shaped around the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday at the dish and Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation give the Orioles plenty of optimism going forward as long as that core can stay healthy, but Rodriguez is slated to miss some time early on and there’s injury concerns around Henderson early as well. The Orioles said goodbye to long-time outfielder Anthony Santander but replaced him with Tyler O’Neill, who statistically was better in most categories in a shorter sample size. The loss of Corbin Burnes to the Orioles’ rotation hurts, as the addition of Charlie Morton is all well and good, but Zach Eflin is not a guy any team should be building their rotation around. Only time will tell if the Orioles can replicate the success to get back to the top of the mountain in the AL East.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Blue Jays have lost eight of their last nine games.
- The road team has won each of the Orioles’ last five games.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 12 Thursday games at Rogers Centre.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday day home games against AL East opponents.
- The Orioles have won the first inning in four of their last five games as road favorites against AL East opponents.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
- Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in each of his last five appearances in season openers.
- Ryan Mountcastle has recorded a Double in three of the Orioles’ last four road openers.
- Tyler O’Neill has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances in season openers.
- Cedric Mullins has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances at Rogers Centre.
- Zach Eflin has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as a favorite against AL East opponents.
- Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one Single in each of the Orioles’ last six road games.
- Zach Eflin has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road favorite against AL East opponents .
- Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against AL opponents.
Toronto Blue Jays Team Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays come into the 2025 campaign hoping for a bounce-back season, finishing with a 74-88 mark in 2024, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2021, and finishing with their first below .500 season since 2019. The big addition for the Blue Jays in the field was the pick up of Anthony Santander from the Orioles, and the big question for Toronto’s front office is when or if they will sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal. Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk are still expected to be key contributors day-to-day for Toronto, but there’s also the expectation of continued growth from young pieces like Alan Roden and Addison Barger, the latter of whom made a big splash in 2024. The Blue Jays’ rotation is intact for the most part, with Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt all back. Bowden Francis is hoping to take another step forward, and the Jays’ addition of a veteran in Max Scherzer should pay some dividends if Scherzer can stay healthy. The Blue Jays will meet the Nationals after this series.
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The underdogs have won nine of the Orioles’ last 10 games.
- The Orioles have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games against American League opponents.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against American League opponents.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- Anthony Santander has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a Double in four of the Blue Jays’ last five home games against AL opponents.
- Jose Berrios has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs.
- Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six home appearances against AL opponents.
- Bo Bichette has scored at least one run in each of the Blue Jays’ last four home openers.
- Jose Berrios has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances against AL opponents.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one Single in each of the Blue Jays’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 home appearances.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Orioles’ last four games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
I’m with Toronto here. Berrios has flat-out owned the Orioles for the better part of his career, and there are already early season concerns with the health of this Orioles lineup that needs to keep the core intact if they’re going to get back to where they were last season. Eflin is not an opening day caliber starter, in my opinion, and I think Toronto starts the season right at home here. Give me the Blue Jays.