The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Sunday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. This will be the final installment in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Blue Jays vs Orioles pick.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles got off to a great start in the series (and season) opener versus Toronto on Thursday, powering out a 12-2 victory on the strength of 14 team hits and three runs in three different innings. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins (three hits; five RBI) and Adley Rutschman (three hits; three runs; three RBI) each had two home runs in that victory.
On Friday in game two, the O’s didn’t fare so well. Baltimore managed just three team hits and had a pair of errors on the way to an 8-2 defeat. Jackson Holliday had two of those three hits, one being a solo home run.
In the Saturday matchup, Baltimore posted a 9-5 victory thanks to four runs int he fourth inning and 12 team hits. The O’s got four hits, three runs and two solo homers from Jordan Westburg in the win, and Ramon Urias provided three hits and three RBI. The Orioles will take on the Boston Red Sox in their next series.
As starting pitcher for Sunday, the O’s will send out right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. This will be the MLB debut for the 35-year-old Sugano. In Spring Training, he managed to go 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five games (four starts). Sugano gave up 11 hits across 15.0 innings in that time.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Over on the Toronto side, they could only muster two runs in the fourth inning during their Thursday defeat. Andres Gimenez was the lone bright spot at the plate, notching a two-run homer among a 1-for-3 day. Starter Jose Berrios was roughed up for six earned runs on nine hits and two walks in 5.0 innings of work.
On Friday the Jays looked much better, bagging five runs in the fourth inning on the way to 14 team hits. Five different players posted multiple knocks in that one, with Ernie Clement coming away with a pair of RBI.
In the Saturday game the Jays got four hits and two runs from Bo Bichette in a pretty good offensive outing. That said, the eight earned runs across the first 5.1 innings was a tough hill to climb. Toronto will face off against the Washington Nationals in their next series.
As starter for Sunday, the Jays will go with Chris Bassitt. Last year Bassitt went 10-14 with a 4.16 ERA in 31 starts. Bassitt is 72-56 in his MLB career, notching a 3.59 ERA over 200 total games (187 starts).
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The Orioles have lost each of their last four games at Rogers Centre following a win.
- The Blue Jays have won four of their last five home games against the Orioles following a loss.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in four of their last five games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight day games against American League opponents.
- The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The underdogs have won seven of the Orioles’ last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games following a home loss.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
- The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Blue Jays.
- The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Orioles’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Blue Jays’ last five games as favorites against the Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last seven Sunday games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last four day games.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction
I’m going to take a stab on the Orioles here. Baltimore’s fate will depend heavily on what Sugano is able to do though, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his official MLB debut. Sugano had a pretty good spring after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with the Orioles, and hopes are high that he’ll be able to help buoy the rotation in 2025. As for Bassitt, he notched a great Spring Training run himself with a 2-0 record and a 1.74 ERA in five starts.
On Saturday Baltimore posted an impressive win on the offensive side, notching multiple runs in three different innings. The O’s got hits from six different batters, which helped offset a pretty rough start from Dean Kremer (5.1 innings; five hits; five earned; two walks; six Ks). The good news is that the bullpen cleaned up from there, giving up just three hits, three walks and no earned runs. I like Baltimore to keep it going in the Sunday finale, but it could be a close one.