The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox meet Wednesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Orioles pick.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Over the weekend the Orioles took on the rival Tampa Bay Rays. Baltimore won Friday but dropped the remaining pair to lose the series. After a 12-3 loss to Boston in the opener, on Tuesday the O’s posted 10 team hits in a 5-3 win. Albert Suarez finished with 6.0 innings and one earned run.
As a starter for the finale, the Orioles will send out Dean Kremer. This year in 21 starts Kremer is 7-9 with a 4.27 ERA. Over 92 career games, Kremer is 29-29 with a 4.33 ERA. The Orioles will meet the Tigers after this series.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Over on the Red Sox’ side, they played the Chicago White Sox in their weekend set. Boston won the first two before a 7-2 loss Sunday. In Tuesday’s game, the Red Sox were down 3-0 by the end of the third and couldn’t finish off the comeback after a late surge.
It’ll be Nick Pivetta in the start for the Red Sox on Wednesday. So far Pivetta is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA in 23 games (22 starts). Pivetta is 55-69 with a 4.80 ERA in 219 career games (174 starts).
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight road games following a win.
- The Red Sox have won each of their last four night games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Red Sox.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road win.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the last 11 games between the Orioles and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Orioles’ last 10 night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last three road games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last three night games.
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
I’ll stay with the Red Sox. Pivetta has been solid over his last two starts, but he’s just 0-1 in that time. Over that pair, Pivetta has three earned in 12.0 innings on 12 hits and four walks. As for Kremer, he’s coming off 6.0 clean frames in a win over the Rays but had seven earned in 9.1 innings prior to that.
On Tuesday the Sox didn’t get enough offense on seven team hits. Boston had a couple of bad innings on the mound, including two earned in a rough effort from Brennan Bernardino. I like Boston to bounce back Wednesday, but they’ve got to keep the bats going.