The Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves meet Friday in MLB action from Truist Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Braves vs Marlins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Braves vs Marlins pick.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Miami’s season opened up with a four-game set versus the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend. The Marlins lost 4-3 in the Friday game two, but won the other three 5-4, 5-4 and 3-2. Game one versus the Mets on Monday was a 10-4 loss, but Miami came back in game two for a 4-2 victory to even things up. In that one the Marlins managed just three team hits, with Kyle Stowers (homer) and Graham Pauley each contributing two RBI. Starter Sandy Alcantara added 5.0 innings with two earned on three hits and no walks alongside four Ks.
In the Wednesday finale of that Mets series, the Marlins fought through 11 innings and had 13 team hits but still took a tough loss 6-5 in the end. Miami’s Xavier Edwards led the charge on four hits with one run and one RBI, while Griffin Conine had three hits with a run. Starter Connor Gillispie had 5.0 frames with four hits, no walks, one earned and six Ks.
As starter for Friday’s game, Miami will go with Max Meyer. So far after one start and no decisions Meyer has 5.2 innings with one earned for a 1.59 ERA. Meyer is 3-6 with a 5.50 ERA in 14 career games, striking out 59 batters over 68.2 innings of work.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Over on the Atlanta side, they opened up the season with a four-game series versus the San Diego Padres. The Braves couldn’t find any victories in that set, losing each one 7-4, 4-3, 1-0 and 5-0. In the Sunday shutout loss, Atlanta mustered just one hit courtesy of Orlando Arcia and one walk from Marcell Ozuna. AJ Smith-Shawver put up 4.0 innings with two earned, six hits and three walks in the starting role.
The Braves played the Los Angeles Dodgers in their early-week series and kept the losing stretch going with defeats 6-1 Monday and 3-1 in game two. In the Wednesday finale of that set, Atlanta had a 5-0 lead at one point early in the game but would implode from there in a 6-5 defeat. Matt Olson bagged two RBI in the loss, and starter Bryce Elder had 4.0 innings with three earned on three hits and two walks.
In the starter role for Friday, the Braves are going with Spencer Schwellenbach. In his first start this year Schwellenbach lasted 6.0 clean frames but didn’t get the decision. In 22 career starts Schwellenbach is 8-7 with a 3.19 ERA, punching out 131 batters in 129.2 innings of work.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The home team has won each of the Braves’ last 10 games.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last nine Friday games at Truist Park.
- The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Marlins following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Friday night games at Truist Park.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in six of their last eight road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last nine games.
- The Marlins have won each of their last six night games following a loss.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a loss.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven road games.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in each of their last five road games.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games.
Total Runs Facts
- Fourteen of the Braves’ last 15 home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Marlins’ last six road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Braves’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.
Braves vs Marlins Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Braves, but you could make a case either way as there’s a pretty generous line for Miami on the other side. We’ve also got a pretty good pitching matchup in store (if both guys play well, that is). Atlanta’s winless record also factors into this. Schwellenbach was solid against the Padres in his first start on March 29, posting 6.0 clean innings with one hit, one walk and four strikeouts. As for Meyer, he went up against the Pirates on March 30 and lasted 5.2 innings with one earned on five hits and one walk. Neither guy was able to get a decision, though.
The Braves were still in a position to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday down the stretch, but their bullpen folded in the eighth and ninth innings. Atlanta’s bats cooled off after the second frame as well. The good news is that the Braves scored five after posting a combined two runs over the previous four games. Maybe getting back home will help spur their bats.