In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, April 5, at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins (4-4, 0-1 Away) won the opening series of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates by winning three of four games. The Marlins then fought bravely against the Mets but lost the series 2-1 after losing Game 3 in extra innings, while they were disnatled by the Braves in the first game of a current three-game series. Max Meyer took a loss after allowing three runs on eight hits with eight strikeouts and two walks in 6.0 innings.
This year, the Marlins average 4.14 runs per game (13th in the MLB) on a .244/.317/.364 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins’ staff has a 3.44 ERA (12th) and 1.20 WHIP (15th). Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with a .303 batting average, two home runs, and seven RBI this season.
Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Marlins on Saturday. The 30-year-old righty had an 8-11 record last season in 29 starts with a 4.98 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 148.1 innings for the Colorado Rockies. This season, Quantrill is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in 4.0 innings.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves (1-7, 1-0 Home) experienced a horrendous start to the season after losing the opening two series and seven games. The Braves were swept by the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers on the road but responded with a massive 10- victory over the Marlins in their first home game of the season. Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson led Atlanta with three RBI apiece, while Spencer Schwellenbach registered a win after allowing no runs on two hits with ten strikeouts and no walks over 8.0 innings of work.
This season, the Braves average 2.00 runs per game (29th in the MLB) on a .151/.251/.234 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Braves’ staff has a 5.11 ERA (25th) and 1.38 WHIP (22nd). Marcell Ozuna leads the Braves with a .286 batting average, one home run, and five RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Braves is AJ Smith-Shawver, who started just one game last year. Smith-Shawver is 0-1 this season with a 4.50 ERA in 4.0 innings.
Why the Marlins will beat the Braves
- The Braves have lost each of their last six night games after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four road games after playing the previous day.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
Why the Braves will beat the Marlins
- The home team has won 14 of the Braves’ last 16 games.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last six games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Braves’ last five games.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 16 games at Truist Park.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the last eight games between the Marlins and Braves at Truist Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Marlins’ last six games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last six home games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Marlins’ last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
Braves vs Marlins Prediction
The Braves won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last three. Neither of the starters impressed in their respective first starts this season, and although I believe they will have a better showing on Saturday, I still don’t believe them much, especially Quantrill. He has a .379 BA in 29 at-bats against the Braves, and even though Atlanta averages only a .167 BA against right-handers so far, I think the hosts will improve those numbers here. Miami, after being kept off the scoreboard on Friday, will respond with multiple runs here against an inexperienced Smith-Shawver. Go with Over.