In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 7th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 46‑45 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 23‑22 home record and are coming off an 11‑5 road win against the Nationals. They will face the Brewers and the Guardians next.
The Pirates have a .262 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .422 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .312 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 63, adding a team‑high 21 home runs.
Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 6‑8 record, 3.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 52‑37 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 25‑19 road record and are coming off a 6‑7 home defeat against the Mets. They will face the Cardinals and the Rangers next.
The Braves have a .248 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .413 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.55 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 57, adding a team‑high 24 home runs.
Hurston Waldrep (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 0‑0 record, 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 7, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes Record this season: 6-8 ERA: 3.62
- Home Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Braves: 0-0
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have won each of their last six home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Braves.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games after going to extra innings.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games as underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Hurston Waldrep Record this season: 0-0 ERA: 3.68
- Road Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Pirates: –
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Braves have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Pirates following a home loss.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Braves’ last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Pirates’ last seven night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Braves’ last five games at PNC Park.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Pirates’ last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three home games.
- Paul Skenes has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
- Nick Gonzales ranks T5th in the league in Hits (99) this season.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Mauricio Dubon has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 14 games as road underdogs.
- Jorge Mateo has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two road games against NL Central opponents.
- Michael Harris is one of only five players to hit over .300 and have 45+ RBIs this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (831).
- The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (860).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (675).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (342).
Braves vs Pirates Prediction
The Braves have won their last four meetings against the Pirates, having swept their previous series earlier this season by 3-0 wins in Atlanta.
In this Braves vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -170 home favorites. It’s Paul Skenes day, but he is currently on the worst stretch of his career, having lost his last six starts and given up 11 runs across his last two starts. I don’t trust Hurston Waldrep for the Braves either and both teams have top-7 offenses this season, so I will go over the 7.5 runs. Both teams are also top-8 against righties in the last 10 days and are 10-3 to the over in their last 13 games combined. Take the over 7.5 runs in this one.