In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 3, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Chicago Cubs (20-13, 11-6 Away) responded to a series loss against the Phillies with a win in two of three games against the Pirates. The Cubs opened the current series against Milwaukee with a big 10-0 victory, the fifth time they kept the opponents off the scoreboard this year. Michael Busch blasted a grand slam off Quinn Priester and led the Cubs offensively, while Ben Brown got the win after allowing no runs on four hits with four strikeouts and no walks over 6.0 innings of work.
This season, the Cubs average 6.00 runs per game (1st in the MLB) on a .264/.342/.457 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Cubs’ staff has a 3.98 ERA (15th) and 1.34 WHIP (21st). Seiya Suzuki leads the Cubs with a .291 batting average, nine home runs, and 29 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Cubs is Jameson Taillon, who is 1-1 in six starts this season, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 33.2 innings.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers (16-17, 9-5 Home) lost the series to the Giants and Cardinals but bounced back with a win over the White Sox. Still, the Brewers did lose Game 3 of that series 8-0 and failed to score again in Game 1 of the series against the Cubs, losing 10-0. Tyler Alexander took the loss after allowing two runs on three hits with one strikeout and no walks in 0.2 innings.
This year, the Brewers average 4.97 runs per game (8th in the MLB) on a .244/.324/.368 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Brewers’ staff has a 4.23 ERA (20th) and 1.35 WHIP (22nd). Jackson Chourio leads the Brewers with a .255 batting average, six home runs, and 24 RBI this season.
Jose Quintana will take the mound for the Brewers on Saturday. The 36-year-old left-hander has a 4-0 record in four starts this year with a 1.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 23.2 innings.
Why the Brewers will beat the Cubs
- The Brewers have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Cubs.
- The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as road favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against the Cubs at American Family Field following a home loss.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 15 night games at American Family Field following a road win.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Brewers’ last five games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Cubs’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank 25th in the league for ERA this season (4.41).
- The Brewers rank 24th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.362).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for triples this season (9).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (198).
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
The Brewers won six of the previous ten H2H encounters. Although they lost the last two games without scoring a single run, I am backing the Brewers here because they are starting Jose Quintana, who is rejuvenated this year and is pitching extremely well. Quintana didn’t allow more than a run in four starts this season. He shut the Cubs out in his last start against Chicago, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens again on Saturday. Jameson Taillon posted a 2.49 ERA in four starts (25.1 innings) against Milwaukee last year. We will have a tight clash here, but I am giving a slight advantage to the Brewers.