In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 4th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 43‑44 record this season and are tied for the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 26‑19 home record and are coming off a 4‑7 home defeat against the Brewers. They will face the Padres and the Dodgers next.
The Diamondbacks have a .238 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Ketel Marte is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 54 and adding a team‑high 17 home runs.
Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 5‑8 record, 5.84 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 54‑32 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 25‑14 road record and are coming off a 7‑4 road win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Cardinals and the Pirates next.
The Brewers have a .254 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average. Jake Bauers leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team‑high 15 home runs.
Brandon Woodruff (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 2‑1 record, 2.59 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: July 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly Record this season: 5-8 ERA: 5.84
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Brewers: 3-2
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Brewers have lost five of their last six games as road favorites after going to extra innings.
- The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
- The Brewers have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against NL Central opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff Record this season: 2-1 ERA: 2.59
- Road Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-1
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a road win.
- The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents after going to extra innings.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday games.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in 15 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Diamondbacks.
Total Runs Facts
- Thirteen of the Brewers’ last 14 games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six home games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine home games against NL Central opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last four road games.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Ketel Marte has hit a home run in four of the Diamondbacks’ last six games.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 12 home appearances.
- Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games against NL opponents.
- Corbin Carroll is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Garrett Mitchell has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last two games.
- Brandon Woodruff has recorded a win in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Brandon Woodruff has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances with the Brewers as road favorites against NL opponents.
- Andrew Vaughn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Saturday night appearances against teams that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (590).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (78).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (850).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (626).
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The Brewers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Diamondbacks but have lost two of their last three visits in Arizona.
In this Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -150 road favorites. This is one is straightforward, as the Brewers have a big pitching edge with Brandon Woodruff going up against Merrill Kelly. Woodruff has been unhittable lately with three straight shutouts, while Kelly has been atrocious this season and has a 0-3 record and 7.27 ERA in his last three starts and an 8.13 home ERA. The Brewers have the third-best offense and a better bullpen, so take them on the moneyline in this one.