In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, September 22nd in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 86-70 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 41-34 home record and are coming off a 7-2 road win against the Mets. They will face the Rays next.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a .241 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Bryce Harper is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 95, adding a team-high 45 home runs.
Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.99 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 98-58 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 46-32 away record and are coming off a 3-0 road win against the Orioles. They will face the Cardinals next.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a .258 batting average this season, .341 OBP and .403 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 93, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 26 home runs.
Dustin May (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 7-9 record, 4.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 22, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler Record this season: 13-5 ERA: 2.99
- Home Record: 5-2
- Last 5 against Brewers: 3-1
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against NL opponents following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Phillies’ last five games.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games at Citizens Bank Park against NL Central opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Dustin May Record this season: 7-9 ERA: 4.61
- Road Record: 2-4
- Last 5 against Phillies: –
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The underdogs have won eight of the last nine games between the Brewers and Phillies.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last five games as favorites following a win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in 14 of their last 15 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against NL opponents.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against NL opponents.
- The Brewers have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Phillies.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the last 10 games between the Brewers and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games as underdogs against NL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last seven games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last eight Tuesday games against NL Central opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in five of the Phillies’ last six home games against NL opponents.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 home appearances against NL opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL Central opponents.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Dustin May has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Tuesday appearances.
- William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 14 games against the Phillies.
- Jake Bauers ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.397) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1510).
- The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1369).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.341).
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction
The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Phillies and have won their last three visits in Philadelphia.
In this Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -135 home favorites. The Brewers have nothing to play for as they have clinched the NL Central and will face Zack Wheeler, who has been in excellent form, having given up one run or less in each of his last four starts and has been better at home. On the flip side, Dustin May sits on a 5.50 road ERA and with Wheeler pitching deep into games, I expect the Phillies to hold on to an early lead and win this one at home.