In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 12th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 49-47 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 26-24 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Brewers. They will face the Guardians and the Yankees next.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .261 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .423 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 64, adding a team-high 21 home runs.
Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 7-8 record, 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 59-36 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 30-18 away record and are coming off a 2-3 road loss against the Pirates. They will face the Marlins and the Mets next.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a .255 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .398 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. Jake Bauers leads the team in RBI with 59, adding a team-high 18 home runs.
Robert Gasser (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 2-3 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 12, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes Record this season: 7-8 ERA: 3.58
- Home Record: 4-4
- Last 5 against Brewers: 2-2
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Pirates have won seven of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents.
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Brewers have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Robert Gasser Record this season: 2-3 ERA: 4.15
- Road Record: 2-1
- Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won 15 of their last 17 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Pirates have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 17 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against the Pirates.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Three of the Brewers’ last four games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Brewers’ last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of Paul Skenes’ five previous appearances as a starter against the Brewers.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit at least one home run in each of the Pirates’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
- Paul Skenes has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Sunday appearances.
- Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
- Nick Gonzales ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.306) this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Jake Bauers has hit a home run in two of the Brewers’ last three games.
- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Pirates.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (871).
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for RBIs this season (481).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.36).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (679).
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Brewers having won their last two meetings in Pittsburgh.
In this Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -120 home favorites. The Pirates won both games of the double header yesterday and we are getting them at an amazing price at home with Skenes on the mound. Skenes has been on a rough stretch lately but he is by far the best pitching option than Robert Gasser, who has a 4.76 road ERA. On top of that, the Pirates have been much better against southpaws in the last 10 days, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.