In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, September 17th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 75-77 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 38-36 home record and are coming off a 4-5 home loss against the Brewers. They will face the Royals and the Cardinals next.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .253 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .307 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 88, adding a team-high 31 home runs.
Wilber Dotel (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 1-5 record, 4.84 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 95-57 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 43-31 away record and are coming off a 5-4 road win against the Pirates. They will face the Orioles and the Phillies next.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a .259 batting average this season, .341 OBP and .405 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .288 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 93, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 26 home runs.
Kyle Harrison (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 10-4 record, 3.98 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: September 17, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Wilber Dotel Record this season: 1-5 ERA: 4.84
- Home Record: 1-3
- Last 5 against Brewers: 0-0
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Brewers have lost three of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Pirates have won five of their last six home games following a loss.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home day games.
- The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four day games at PNC Park.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four home day games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Harrison Record this season: 10-4 ERA: 3.98
- Road Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Pirates: 2-0
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won seven of their last eight games.
- The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against the Pirates following a win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games as favorites against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the last six games between the Brewers and Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last seven home games against NL Central opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last four games at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Rafael Flores has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
- Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games against the Brewers.
- Nick Gonzales ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.307) this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- William Contreras has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Kyle Harrison has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Jake Bauers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
- Jake Bauers ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.394) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1324).
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (145).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1341).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.341).
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
The Brewers have won their last five meetings against the Pirates, including their last two visits in Pittsburgh.
In this Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -135 road favorites. I like the Brewers to keep rolling in this one, as they are 7-1 in their last 8 games and are facing a struggling Pirates team that is on the verge of mathematical elimination from the playoffs and are 1-4 in their last 5. Harrison has been in bad shape but has shut out the Pirates twice this season and the Brewers have both a superior offense and bullpen lately. Take the Brewers to win this one.