In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, April 3, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (2-4, 0-0 Away) lost the opening two series of the season to the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers, both with the identical 2-1 result. Cincinnati scored 14 runs in the Game 1 victory over the Rangers but then failed to get on the scoreboard in the following two, losing both duels 1-0. Hunter Greene took a loss in a quality start in the most recent game after allowing one run on three hits with eight strikeouts and one walk in 7.0 innings.
This year, the Reds average 4.00 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .218/.271/.352 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Reds’ staff has a 2.83 ERA (7th) and 0.87 WHIP (2nd). Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with a .333 batting average, two home runs, and eight RBI this season.
Nick Lodolo will take the mound for the Reds on Thursday. The 27-year-old southpaw had a 9-6 record last season in 21 starts with a 4.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 115.1 innings. This season, Lodolo got a win against the Giants as he posted a 3.00 ERA over 6.0 innings of work. The Reds will meet the Giants, Pirates, Mariners, and Orioles after this series.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers (2-4, 2-1 Home) struggled in the opening four games of the season, but now it looks better following two wins over the Kansas City Royals. After being swept by the Yankees in a three-game series, the Brewers lost the first of a three-game series against the Royals. Milwaukee responded in style with a 5-0 victory and then clinched the series with a 3-2 win after two extra innings. Jackson Chourio contributed with two RBIs, while Freddy Peralta dominated through 8.0 innings, allowing one run on two hits with eight strikeouts and no walks. Jared Koenig was awarded with a win.
This season, the Brewers average 3.83 runs per game (18th in the MLB) on a .223/.301/.346 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Brewers’ staff has a 7.81 ERA (30th) and 1.54 WHIP (28th). Brice Turang leads the Brewers with a .320 batting average, one home run, and four RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Brewers is Nestor Cortes, who had a 9-10 record in 30 starts last season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 174.1 innings of work with the Yankees. Cortes was destroyed by his former team on his debut for the Brewers; he allowed eight runs (five homers) on six hits with two strikeouts and five walks in 2.0 innings for a 36.00 ERA.
Why the Reds will beat the Brewers
- The Reds have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Brewers have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against the Reds following a home win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against the Brewers following a loss.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Brewers will beat the Reds
- The Brewers have won seven of their last eight games against the Reds following an extra-innings win.
- The Reds have lost each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last four games following an extra-innings win.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 Thursday games as home favorites.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last nine road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games following an extra-innings win have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last nine road games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last six Thursday games against National League opponents.
Brewers vs Reds Prediction
The Brewers won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. Nestor Cortes had a nightmarish debut for Milwaukee, and it was written in the stars that his former team, the Yankees, had to dismantle him. I expect a bounce-back performance from a lefty as the Reds are not batting well against southpaws: .167 BA this season. The Brewers are a bit better against lefties, but not much; they have a .208 BA in 96 at-bats. I am going with a low-scoring affair.