In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 5th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 49‑40 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 26‑19 home record and are coming off a 0‑3 home defeat against the Cardinals. They will face the Orioles and the Reds next.
The Cubs have a .244 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.36 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Pete Crow‑Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .289 batting average, adding a team‑high 19 home runs. Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 57.
Javier Assad (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 6‑1 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals have a 47‑39 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 24‑18 road record and are coming off a 3‑0 road win against the Cubs. They will face the Brewers and the Braves next.
The Cardinals have a .248 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. St. Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Jordan Walker is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average, adding a team‑high 19 home runs. Alec Burleson leads the team in RBI with 63.
Matthew Liberatore (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 4‑5 record, 5.33 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
St. Louis Cardinals @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: July 5, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Javier Assad Record this season: 6-1 ERA: 4.53
- Home Record: 2-0
- Last 5 against Cardinals: 1-1
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last five day games against the Cardinals following a home loss.
- The Cardinals have lost four of their last five day games against the Cubs following a road win.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Cardinals following a loss.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 13 games after playing the previous day.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home day games.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 day games against the Cardinals.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore Record this season: 4-5 ERA: 5.33
- Road Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Cubs: 2-0
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Cubs have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 home games following a loss.
- The road team has covered the run line in 11 of the Cardinals’ last 12 games.
- The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five home games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last five day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Cardinals’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Cardinals’ last eight Sunday day games against National League opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of Javier Assad’s last eight appearances as a starter.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Javier Assad has recorded four or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 appearances with the Cubs as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 16 home games.
- Javier Assad has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Miguel Amaya has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Cardinals after playing the previous day.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Matthew Liberatore has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last seven games against NL Central opponents.
- Matthew Liberatore has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Cardinals as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Bryan Torres has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Ivan Herrera ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.397) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (395).
- The Cubs rank T29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (136).
- The Cardinals rank 28th in the league for strikeouts this season (647).
- The Cardinals rank 27th in the league for doubles this season (121).
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Cubs and have won their last two visits in Chicago.
In this Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -150 home favorites. The Cubs have been atrocious in this series, having lost both games with a combined 20-1 score but I like them to bounce back today as Javier Assad goes up against a struggling Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore has been in very bad form with a 9.00 ERA across his last three starts and has a 5.45 road ERA, while the Cubs have a better offense, are better against lefties and also have a better bullpen. Take the Cubs to win.