In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, August 20th at the loanDepot park in the third game of this series, with the Cardinals having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 59-67 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 28-33 home record and are 61-62 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-7 home defeat by the Cardinals, and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Blue Jays and the Braves next.
The Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .396 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.54 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 136 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average. Kyle Stowers adds team-highs in RBI with 73 and in home runs with 25.
Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 6-11 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals have a 63-64 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL Central. The Cardinals have a 28-34 road record and are 64-57 in over/under They are coming off a 7-4 road victory over the Marlins, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Pirates and the Rays next.
The Cardinals have a .250 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. St. Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Brendan Donovan leads the Cardinals with 118 hits, while Alec Burleson is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average. Wilson Contreras leads the team in RBI, with 66, adding a team-high 16 home runs.
Andre Pallante (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 6-10 record, 5.04 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Wednesday games.
- The Cardinals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against National League opponents.
- The road team has won each of the Cardinals’ last seven games.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Cardinals’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four home games.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank T4th in the league for triples this season (23).
- The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
- The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
- The Cardinals rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (928).
Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction
The Marlins are 4-3 in their last 7 meetings against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Miami. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Miami.
In this Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -130 home favorites. In no way shape or form I am going to back Sandy Alcantara, especially as a favorite. He might be better at home, with a 5.09 home ERA, but Pallante has also been better on the road, with a 4.73 ERA. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they are both volatile and can give up 5+ runs, and Pallante is coming into this matchup in terrible form, with 10 earned runs in his last two starts. Both teams are better against righties, averaging 9.4 runs per game combined against right-handed pitching. The total for some reason is set only at 8 runs, and both games of this series had 11 total runs each. Take the over 8 in this one.