In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 3rd at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 61-50 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 35-19 home record, and are 45-63 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 5-8 home defeat by the Cardinals, which snapped their previous six-game winning streak. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Red Sox and the Diamondbacks next.
The Padres have a .250 batting average this season, a .318 OBP, and a .379 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Manny Machado leads the Padres with 129 hits, adding a team-high .301 batting average and a team-high 72 RBI. He also adds a team-high 20 home runs.
Dylan Cease (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 3-10 record, 4.79 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP.
Saint Louis Cardinals Preview
The Saint Louis Cardinals have a 56-56 record this season and are sitting in 4th place in the NL Central. The Cardinals have a 24-32 road record and are 56-50 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-5 road victory over the Padres, which ended their previous three-game losing streak. Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games and are playing the Dodgers and the Cubs next.
The Cardinals have a .249 batting average this season, a .320 OBP, and a .389 Slugging percentage. Saint Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Brendan Donovan leads the Cardinals with 112 hits, while Alec Burleson is the team’s best hitter with a .284 batting average. Wilson Contreras leads the team in RBI, with 63, adding a team-high 15 home runs.
Andre Pallante (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 6-7 record, 4.62 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine road games.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games at Petco Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Padres have won the first inning in six of their last seven day games against the Cardinals.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Cardinals and Padres.
- The Padres have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 16 of the Padres’ last 19 games at Petco Park.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the Padres’ last eight day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Cardinals’ last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cardinals’ last eight day games at Petco Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight day games at Petco Park.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (828).
- The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (93).
- The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for triples this season (4).
- The Cardinals rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (809).
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
The Padres have won their last three meetings against the Cardinals, and under is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.
In this Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -185 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, and they have been one of the best home teams in the whole league. Being such big favorites when their starting pitcher is weaker than their opponents’ makes them overvalued in this spot. Cease has been mediocre at best for the Padres this season, but he has been better at home. But he is coming into this matchup in poor form, with a 5.67 ERA in his last five starts. Pallante has also been mediocre for the Cardinals, and he has a 5.16 ERA in his last five starts. With both teams being better against righties, with 9.2 runs per game combined, I like this game to be a high-scoring one. Take the over 8 runs.