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Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7-4-24 Picks

Philadelphia Phillies (56-29) vs. Chicago Cubs (39-47)
July 4, 2024 2:20 pm EDT
The Line: Chicago Cubs +106 / Philadelphia Phillies -125; Over/Under: +7.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs meet Thursday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies played the Miami Marlins in their weekend series. Philadelphia managed to split four games, winning 2-0 Friday and 7-6 in the finale. After a 6-4 win over the Cubs in the opener of that set, on Wednesday the Phillies took a victory 5-3.

In the starter role for the finale the Phillies will send out Christopher Sanchez. In 16 starts this year Sanchez is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA. Over 57 career games (38 starts), Sanchez is 12-10 with a 3.49 ERA.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they played the Milwaukee Brewers in their last series. Chicago was only able to win one of those games however (5-3 Saturday), falling 4-2 and 7-1 otherwise. On Wednesday the Cubs got 6.0 innings and three earned runs from Shota Imanaga in the start.

It’ll be Jameson Taillon in the starting pitcher role for the Cubs on Thursday. So far this year Taillon is 4-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 13 starts. Taillon is 63-49 with a 3.93 ERA in 186 career games (185 starts).

Cubs vs Phillies Pick Injury Notes

Phillies catcher JT Realmuto (knee) participated in hitting and receiving drills this week.

Cubs SP Caleb Kilian (shoulder) started a rehab assignment Tuesday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Cubs’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Nine of the Phillies’ last 11 day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last three home games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Ian Happ has hit a home run in two of the Cubs’ last three day games.
  • Ian Happ has recorded a Double in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ian Happ has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Cubs’ last four day games.
  • Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Cubs as home underdogs.
  • Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances against the Phillies.
  • Ian Happ has recorded at least one total base in nine of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Phillies.
  • Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Cubs as home underdogs.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Alec Bohm has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games as favorites.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against NL opponents.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 14 appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
  • Cristopher Sanchez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.41) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Chicago Cubs rank T4th in the league for walks this season (304).
  • The Chicago Cubs rank 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (771).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.09).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (68).

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’ll stay with Philadelphia. Sanchez is rolling along nicely these days. He’s 3-0 in his last three starts with just one earned run in 23.0 combined innings. As for Taillon, he hasn’t been too bad himself with six earned over 19.0 innings in his last three starts (a 1-2 stretch).

On Wednesday the Phillies had a pretty solid pitching effort overall and the offense came through pretty well. I like Philly to keep it up in the Thursday finale.

Andrew's Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -125

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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