In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 14th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Reds are Playing Better
The Cincinnati Reds are 47-49 this year and they have won three games in a row. Cincinnati has won the first two games in this series by scores of 7-4 and 10-6. Prior to this series, the Reds won three out of four against the Rockies, lost all three against the Tigers, and swept the Yankees in three games. Cincinnati is 5-1 in their last six games and they are fourth in the NL Central.
The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 430 runs with a .232 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Spencer Steer is batting .244 with 15 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored at least five runs in six straight games.
Marlins Have Lost Five Straight
The Miami Marlins are 32-63 this season and they have lost five games in a row. Miami has lost the first two games in this series and they have allowed 17 runs in the two losses. Prior to this series, the Marlins lost all three against the Astros, won two out of three against the White Sox, and lost all three against the Red Sox. Miami is 2-10 in their last 12 games and they are last in the NL East.
The Miami pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 333 runs with a .233 batting average and a .283 on base percentage. Josh Bell is batting .230 with nine home runs and 39 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has allowed at least six runs in four straight games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Trevor Rogers, who is 1-9 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 89.2 innings pitched this season. Rogers has allowed two earned runs in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 8-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 73.2 innings pitched this year. Lodolo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, but has allowed seven earned runs in his last two outings.
Why the Reds will beat the Marlins
- The home team has won each of the Marlins’ last seven games.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven road games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against the Marlins following a home win.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 11 games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Reds’ last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last nine day games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
- TJ Friedl has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one total base in each of the Reds’ last 15 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in each of his seven previous appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
- Jake Fraley has recorded a Single in seven of his last eight appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Josh Bell has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
- Bryan De La Cruz has scored a run in each of the Marlins’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last six road games.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Marlins’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded a hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (134).
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 27th in the league for hits this season (728).
- The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (78).
- The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for walks this season (201).
Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction
These two teams come into this matchup trending in different directions heading into the All-Star break and the Reds are looking to get closer to the .500 mark. Cincinnati is 25-27 at home this year, while the Marlins are 14-32 on the road. Miami has been one of the worst teams in the MLB this season and their pitching staff has a terrible team ERA. I know Lodolo had a rough outing last time out, but this should be an opportunity for a nice bounce back outing. My Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins prediction is for the Reds to win by at least two runs.