The Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds clash Monday in game 1 of an MLB series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
The Twins look for a win after splitting their last 8 games. The Twins have a 7 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins pitching staff is 6th in ERA (3.89), 4th in WHIP (1.20) and 1st in quality starts (72). The Twins offense is 12th in runs per game (4.70), 21st in batting average (.242) and 5th in homers (213). Carlos Correa leads the Twins with 118 hits and 65 RBI, while Donovan Solano and Max Kepler have combined for 204 hits and 98 RBI. Joe Ryan gets the ball, and he is 10-9 with a 4.20 ERA and 176 strikeouts this season. This will be Ryan’s first career game against the Reds.
Minnesota Twins Team Facts
The Twins have lost each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents following a win.
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games at Great American Ball Park.
The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last four road games against National League opponents.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Reds look for a win after splitting their last 10 games. The Reds are 0.5 games back in the NL wild card race. The Reds pitching staff is 24th in ERA (4.72), 23rd in WHIP (1.41) and 26th in quality starts (41). The Reds’ offense is 11th in runs per game (4.70), 17th in batting average (.247) and 15th in homers (176). Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 143 hits and 81 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Tyler Stephenson have combined for 232 hits and 106 RBI. Connor Phillips gets the ball, and he is 0-0 with a 8.31 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Phillips’ first career game against the Twins.
Cincinnati Reds Team Facts
The Reds have won each of their last nine Monday home games.
The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the last eight games between the Twins and Reds.
The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home night games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last five games as home underdogs.
Matchup/League Facts
The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (173).
The Cincinnati Reds rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (33).
The Minnesota Twins rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1542).
The Minnesota Twins rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1412).
Randy’s Pick
The Reds should have the edge at home, and they’re desperate for a win to stay in the wild card race. However, I can’t get behind Connor Phillips and his 8.31 ERA in a small sample size. Joe Ryan has been hit or miss this season in a larger role, but he’s allowed just 5 runs in his last 14.2 innings and is averaging 10.9 strikeouts per 9 innings. The Twins are the better team overall, with the pitching advantage. I’ll lay the cheap price with the road team.
