The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds meet Sunday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Mitch Keller here and Keller is 6-7 with a 4.83 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season. Chase Burns will start for Cincinnati and is 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 128 strikeouts this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to add on to their 4-1 win over the Reds from Saturday to improve to 56-56 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Pirates Snap Four-Game Slide
Oneil Cruz has 66 hits including 10 doubles, 14 home runs and 44 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 97 hits with 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 69 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 127 hits with 18 doubles and 50 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 105 hits with 25 doubles, 23 home runs and 71 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 110 hits with 26 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs and 62 RBIs as well this season.
Cincinnati Reds Recap
The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to the Pirates last time out to sit at 52-58 this season. After this series, the Reds will take on the Athletics in a series at home.
Reds Have Two-Game Win Streak
Elly De La Cruz has 100 hits with 18 doubles, 4 triples, 18 home runs and 48 RBIs while Sal Stewart has 106 hits with 23 doubles, 23 home runs and 84 RBIs. Spencer Steer has 81 hits with 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 40 RBIs and Matt McLain has 53 hits with 13 doubles, 8 home runs and 25 RBIs. JJ Bleday’s added 66 hits with 11 doubles, 19 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: August 2, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns Record this season: 12-1 ERA: 2.40
- Home Record: 6-1
- Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won each of their last six games following a loss.
- The Pirates have lost six of their last seven road games following a road win.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller Record this season: 6-7 ERA: 4.83
- Road Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Reds: 2-2
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The underdogs have won nine of the Reds’ last 11 games.
- The Reds have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Reds’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Ten of the Pirates’ last 12 games as underdogs against the Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Reds’ last 10 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last seven day games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games as home favorites against NL opponents.
- Chase Burns has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
- Eugenio Suarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Reds as favorites against the Pirates.
- Chase Burns has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
- Chase Burns ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (12) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
- Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
- Nick Gonzales ranks T4th in the league in Hits (127) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (845).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.230).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1010).
- The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (576).
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction
I’m on the Reds in this one. I just think that this is a bad spot for Mitch Keller considering that he has an ERA just under nine in 8 career starts at GABP, and this is just a good matchup for the Reds with Chase Burns going here. He looked decent despite giving up five runs to Pittsburgh when he faced them in June, and I look for the Reds to get the win here.