In this article we will formulate a Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, October 12th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game five in the ALDS.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Cleveland Guardians were able to fight off elimination with their game four win on Thursday by a score of 5-4 in Detroit. Cleveland blew a 2-1 lead and was trailing 3-2 in the seventh, but they got a two-run homer from Fry to take the lead and ultimately got the winning run on a squeeze play in the ninth. Cleveland also won game one by a score of 7-0, but they were shutout in games two and three. Prior to the postseason, the Guardians lost both games against the Astros, won both games against the Reds, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals.
The Cleveland pitching staff had a 3.61 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average this season. The Guardians offense scored 708 runs with a .238 batting average and a .307 on base percentage during the regular season. Jose Ramirez hit .279 with 39 home runs and 118 RBI’s this year.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
The Detroit Tigers missed out on a great chance to clinch the series in game four, and now they have to go to game five on the road in order to advance. Detroit led 3-2 in the later innings and their bullpen had been fantastic over the last few months, but they couldn’t hold onto the lead. Detroit did win games two and three by a score of 3-0 in each game and they need another dominating performance from Skubal here. Prior to this series, the Tigers swept the Astros in two games by scores of 3-1 and 5-2.
The Detroit pitching staff had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average in the regular season. The Tigers offense scored 682 runs with a .234 batting average and a .300 on base percentage this year. Riley Greene hit .262 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI’s for the Tigers this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Matthew Boyd, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Boyd threw 4.2 scoreless innings against the Tigers in game two. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who has not allowed an earned run in three straight starts (20.0 IP). Skubal threw 7.0 shutout innings against the Guardians in the game two win.
Why the Guardians will beat the Tigers
- The Tigers have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites after not playing the previous day.
- The Guardians have won each of their last eight Saturday games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine playoff games as favorites after not playing the previous day.
- The Tigers have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians
- The Tigers have won each of their last seven road games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Guardians have lost each of their last four night playoff games after not playing the previous day.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 road games against the Guardians following a loss.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against the Tigers following a win.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games at Progressive Field against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Guardians’ last four games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Twelve of the Tigers’ last 15 games as favorites against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last five night games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last five games as favorites.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four Saturday games.
- Josh Naylor has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Josh Naylor has recorded an RBI in three of the Guardians’ last four home playoff games.
- Josh Naylor has scored at least one run in 14 of his last 16 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians’ last six playoff games as underdogs.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 11 games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one total base in each of the Guardians’ last 11 games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
- Jose Ramirez ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (39) this season.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one Double in each of the Tigers’ last four games as favorites against the Guardians.
- Spencer Torkelson has scored a run in six of the Tigers’ last seven games as road favorites.
- Tarik Skubal has recorded a win in each of his last seven Saturday appearances.
- Parker Meadows has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Parker Meadows has recorded at least one hit in each of the Tigers’ last nine road games against AL Central opponents.
- Parker Meadows has recorded at least one total base in each of the Tigers’ last nine road games against AL Central opponents.
- Tarik Skubal has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 19 appearances in day games.
- Colt Keith has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Tigers as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
- Kerry Carpenter has hit a home run in each of the Tigers’ last two games as favorites.
- Tarik Skubal ranks 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (228) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (1224).
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.61).
- The Detroit Tigers rank 1st in the league for triples this season (47).
- The Detroit Tigers rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.300).
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
These two teams have played a very entertaining series and it will be decided in game five here. Cleveland was one of the best teams in the MLB all season long, while Detroit has been one of the hottest teams since mid-August. The Tigers will have one of the best pitchers in all of baseball on the mound in this game, but it is never easy to pitch against a team twice in one series. Skubal has been elite this entire season and he hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, but I do think Cleveland will find some success here. The Guardians started to put some runners on base towards the end of Skubal’s last start and I do think they will scratch out at least two runs against him. On the other side, I don’t have much faith in Boyd and I think the Detroit bats will also produce runs. This total is low and I can see why, but I am going with the over here.