In this article we will formulate a Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 22nd at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Guardians are Looking for Payback
The Cleveland Guardians are 59-39 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Cleveland is coming off of a series loss against San Diego, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Rays, lost three out of four against the Tigers, and won two out of three against the Giants. Cleveland is 2-6 in their last eight games, but they are leading the AL Central by five games over the Twins and Royals.
The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 462 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .271 with 23 home runs and 79 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has scored one run or fewer in five of their last seven games.
Tigers are Red Hot
The Detroit Tigers are 49-51 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Detroit is coming off of a series win against Toronto, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Tigers won two out of three against the Dodgers, won three out of four against the Guardians, and swept the Reds in three games. Detroit is 10-3 in their last 13 games and they are fourth in the AL Central.
The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 429 runs with a .233 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Riley Greene is batting .271 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. Detroit has scored at least four runs in eight of their last nine games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who is 10-3 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 116.0 innings pitched this year. Skubal has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Carlos Carrasco, who is 3-7 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 86.0 innings pitched this season. Carrasco has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.
Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians
- The Guardians have lost nine of their last 10 night games after playing the previous day.
- The Tigers have won seven of their last eight games against the Guardians following a loss.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Guardians.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Tigers’ last eight road games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Guardians’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last three night games at Progressive Field.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians’ last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Steven Kwan has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last five home games against AL opponents.
- Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Will Brennan has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Andres Gimenez has scored a run in six of his last seven home appearances against AL opponents.
- Carlos Carrasco has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Josh Naylor has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four home games against AL opponents.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Guardians’ last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Carson Kelly has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Riley Greene has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Tigers’ last nine games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Carson Kelly has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances.
- Riley Greene has recorded at least one total base in each of the Tigers’ last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Matt Vierling has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in night games.
- Tarik Skubal has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Matt Vierling has recorded a Double in three of the Tigers’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (755).
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (378).
- The Detroit Tigers rank 1st in the league for triples this season (31).
- The Detroit Tigers rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.299).
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Cleveland is currently leading the AL Central standings over the Twins and Royals, but they haven’t played well recently and they need to figure things out. The Guardians are one of the best home teams in baseball, going 31-13 at home, while Detroit is just 25-27 on the road. The Tigers are playing their best baseball of the season right now and their offense has been producing for about two weeks now. Detroit will have their ace on the mound, Tarik Skubal, who has been one of the best in the MLB this year. Cleveland is going with Carrasco, who has been serviceable this year, but I don’t really trust him. My Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers prediction is for the Tigers to get the win.